Posts
What if the future of AI isn't anything you can imagine or firmly invest in yet?
Right now we are being told (and telling) a story about a revolution of our way of life, transformed by an exponential capex that is driving the stock market to heights we have never seen before. The next space-race. A Renaissance. We see a today a natural, exuberant investment in …
Is the entire Ai Boom built on fake revenue?
Latest corporate filings show that OpenAI and Anthropic alone make up over half of the entire $2 trillion future cloud backlog held by Microsoft, Oracle, Google, and Amazon. This massive pipeline is actually being created through a circular accounting trick called a round trip revenue loop. But how it works? …
Impact of SpaceX IPO on other stocks
Assuming a 20x oversubscription and assuming flat to be 75 Billion, we are looking at 1.5T liquidity that the market would need. Investors might already be selling some assets (megatech? Bitcoin?) Or might sell in the next few weeks. Which stock would you trim in anticipation of a lower price …
What stocks are you buying or dumping when China makes a move on Taiwan?
Feels like the whole AI/semi trade has a hidden geopolitical time bomb attached to it. TSMC basically powers the modern tech world, so an invasion/blockade would hit way beyond just Taiwan. + 1/5 of all global maritime trade passes through the Taiwan Strait. The dip from the Iran war would …
SpaceX Fair value.
For the last few days we all could read multiple posts and thousands of comments on SpaceX IPO ranging from WSB style to some serious discussion. However, I am a simple person and a quiet investor, so I am missing the actual base value of that stock, aside from all …
"Stock Market Can't Go Down"?!
That's what people are posting on reddit. In one post this new reality was explained by loose monetrary policy, high federal debt burden and sticky inflation. Federal government has the power to keep stock prices artifically high, but to what end? USA has the lowest customer confidence ever, since records …
Why the Stock Market Can Literally Never Go Down Again
The market will never go down again. Ever. Seriously. I don’t know who still needs convincing, but the idea of stocks falling is basically obsolete. “Stonks only go up” used to be a meme. Now it’s monetary policy. Think about it. The U.S. is buried under $40 trillion of debt, …
$GOOGL AI Complex will beat OpenAI and $NVDA
The cadence of AI progress right is set by OpenAI and their releases of new ChatGPT models. I believe this a temporary phenomena as hyperscalers, sovereign nations, and even large corporates abandon the closed-architecture of OpenAI with Nvidia GPUs. The future is open sourced hardware (TPUs) and software (Gemini) and …
How should retail investors protect ourselves for the potential extreme market volatility caused by the SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic's IPO?
SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are allowed to join major indexes like the Nasdaq 100 shortly after their IPOs due to a Nasdaq rule change implemented on May 1. Historically, companies were required to season in the public markets for several months to ensure price discovery. These mega-cap IPOs can be …
COIN dropped 50% in revenue across two quarters in 2022 and the same concentration risk is still there
Disclosure: I hold COIN. Coinbase reported $2.3B in Q1 revenue per the 10Q. Transaction fees, USDC stablecoin interest, and custody made up roughly 90% of that. Custody grew after spot ETF approvals, which is great, but all three lines depend on the same thing: a friendly regulatory environment. We already …