COIN dropped 50% in revenue across two quarters in 2022 and the same concentration risk is still there

Disclosure: I hold COIN.

Coinbase reported $2.3B in Q1 revenue per the 10Q. Transaction fees, USDC stablecoin interest, and custody made up roughly 90% of that. Custody grew after spot ETF approvals, which is great, but all three lines depend on the same thing: a friendly regulatory environment.

We already saw what happens when that flips. Revenue went from $2.5B in Q4 2021 to $1.2B by Q2 2022 as SEC enforcement escalated. The company has not meaningfully diversified since then.

I was digging into crypto sentiment data on Surf while reviewing the filing and honestly the bull case still comes down to "policy stays favorable." That is a lot of concentration for a $60B+ company.