Posts
Deep Dive: Why Wall Street’s HBM4 Models for Micron/SK Hynix vs. Samsung are Structurally Broken (A Multiplicative SCM Risk Model)
**TL;DR (Too Long; Didn't Read)** **The Core Premise:** Wall Street models HBM4/HBM5 market share using independent, additive yields. Physical 3D integration dictates that supply chain risks are **multiplicative, not additive**. **The Alliance Bottleneck:** The TSMC-Hynix/Micron alliance faces cross-border logistical latency (3-4 weeks TAT troubleshooting) and heterogeneous material warpage. Crucially, they …
Accenture at 7x FCF — the cheapest quality name in IT services, or a franchise whose unit of sale is being automated?
**Quick background**: Accenture (NYSE: ACN) is the largest IT-services and consulting firm in the world — \~780,000 people, roughly half strategic consulting and half multi-year managed services, capital-light, ROIC near 20%, net cash on the balance sheet. After a steep de-rating it trades around $129 (≈$79B market cap, as of …
Last week I published a bear case DCF on Comcast with a "dream scenario" of an NBCUniversal spinoff at $55-75 per share. This morning they announced it. Stock is up 20% premarket. Here's the original math.
Last week I ran a bear case DCF on Comcast using normalized FCF of $16B, assumed 3% annual decline for 12 straight years, 10% discount rate, and explicitly stripped $89B in net debt from the terminal value. Bear case fair value: $30-38 per share against a $22 price. At the …
Thoughts on Georg Fischer AG (Ticker on SWX: GF)
I just found this company in Switzerland that does look quite good for one the sectors I'm bullish on long term (Water/Fluids/Chemical processes). I don't really have an expertise on analyzing deeply, but I'd like to ask for your opinions. Good growth, relative healthy debt-wise and good outlook with datacenter …
Is SAP undervalued?
I recently valued SAP using a 10-year DCF. SAP traded at around $155 when I completed the valuation and my base-case DCF gives an intrinsic value of roughly $260 per ADR, implying a 40.4% margin of safety (my cut-off for deeply undervalued is >40%). The scenario range is: \- Bear …
Bachem Holding AG ($BANB) a Swiss Biotech comp for a pick-and-shovel GLP-1 play
For a quick refresher, GLP-1s are gut-hormone mimics that regulate blood sugar and signal metabolic fullness to the brain. They are used to treat Diabetes type 2 and obesity. GLP-1 is the active peptide engine behind massive drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy. Global demand is absolutely skyrocketing because they are …
My AI infra + memory watchlist: NBIS, CRWV, IREN, KEEL, MU, and Sandisk — what’s your valuation take?
I’ve been following a few names in the AI infrastructure and memory space, and I’m trying to separate real value from pure momentum. My current watchlist is NBIS, CoreWeave, IREN, KEEL, Micron, and Sandisk. What I’m seeing: • NBIS looks like the strongest strategic AI-infra story, especially after Nvidia’s backing, …
This is a simple valuation of Domino's PIzza inc ($DPZ).
This is a simple valuation of Domino's PIzza inc ($DPZ). After i read [this compelling article](https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/s/AIFxbuD8oi) over the weekend, i decided to take a look at DPZ. The following format is consistent across all my "simple valuation". I will give my conclusions and comments below. **Disclosure**: i don't own the …
Six months ago we called Microsoft overvalued at $490 and got roasted for it. It's now $373. Here's where it stands.
In December, I [posted](https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1p9ks0t/understanding_michael_burrys_nvidia_short_the/) a breakdown in this sub arguing Microsoft was overvalued at $490, in the context of its capex spend (a concern Michael Burry had raised). I got a fair amount of criticism for those valuations. Here is exactly what I said at the time: "Assuming the P/E …
Zuck is going to cook
Meta is being critized very hard on the huge capex and for a valid reason, the past faillure with the metaverse. But people forger that zuck is very very good at copying other stuff and making money out of them. Ai is a valid technology that we all know about …