A value angle on Palantir: its cheap, undervalued customers (value plays + turnarounds) before the margin turn shows up
I've got a thesis I'm testing and I'd love this sub to poke holes in it.
Here's the irony: Palantir is one of the most *expensive* stocks on the market. Clearly not a value play, and I'm not pitching it as one. But I'd argue it might be a value investor's best friend. Not because you make money owning it but because the companies that *use* it are often the cheap, undervalued ones, and those are the ones that could quietly outperform the market.
A lot of the interesting names here aren't Palantir itself they're its *customers*, and many are exactly what value investors look at: cheap, out-of-favor value plays. Some are outright turnarounds, but others are just quietly undervalued businesses the market underrates (Lumen, Hertz, Citi, Zeta, etc.).
My argument: working with Palantir raises the *probability* that these undervalued names re-rate whether that's a turnaround finally turning, or an underappreciated business simply getting more profitable and growing faster than the market expects. Two reasons:
1) It builds the company a real-time "digital brain" (built WITH their own team) which tends to show up exactly where we care: efficiency gains, better inventory/ops, margin expansion, sometimes new revenue lines. More durable FCF, not just a story.
2) Its Customer First / Outcome First culture rubs off. There's almost a "mindset ceiling" effect — like the 4-minute mile: once one company proves the old limit was only in people's heads, the whole org starts operating at a new level. AI + a new mindset = a real shot at higher margins and growth, not just cost-cutting.
The value setup: the market still discounts these names as broken. If the operational turn is real and shows up in the numbers, that gap closes quality/normalization bought at a discount, with a margin of safety if you're strict on price.
Caveats (staying disciplined):
\- It raises the odds, it does NOT guarantee. Buffett's "turnarounds seldom turn" still applies. Plenty will fail.
\- Correlation ≠ causation; hard to prove Palantir *caused* a move.
\- Software doesn't fix a broken business model or a bad product.
\- Valuation still decides your return. Don't overpay for the narrative.
So "uses Palantir" is a screening lead, not a buy button.
Which Palantir customer looks most like a genuinely mispriced value play to you (turnaround or just underrated) and where do you think margins realistically go?