Posts
Margin of safety protects your estimate, not your holding period
On the credit side you never start with what a company is worth. You start with what kills it. It's a different question, and it puts you in a completely different set of numbers. Margin of safety on this sub means price. Your estimate says 20, it trades at 10, …
Elon Musk thinks AI could double US GDP growth next year
I read that Elon Musk is predicting AI could push the USA's GDP growth from around 2% to 4% next year and he even left open the possibility of an even higher number. Ok, I see how AI could really start helping companies produce more with fewer resources, the impact …
Investing Research Prototype
Good morning, I would like some help stress-testing an approach I have been using to validate or invalidate possible investment theses, as this is the part of investing I personally struggle to find enough time for. My investing style includes both shorter-term and longer-term equity picking, and I have been …
Europe's NPL numbers look surprisingly stable. But are they actually?
The 2026 NPL market report is out, with a few headline figures worth looking at. The aggregate numbers can be somewhat misleading, though - the picture changes quite a bit once you look at underlying data. All figures are as of Q4 2025. NPL volumes at large banks under direct …
What's your thought on booking.com
Isn't booking.com an obvious value play? It takes 0 incremental value for onboarding ene users, AI is gonna cut if not already most of the customer service and back office costs and the stock is at 13x forward PE. 120 bn market cap 9 bn FCF. Not a hot stock …
Essilor - Direct Meta Beneficiary
Tomorrow we start Meta Connect event which will cover the newest development in AI and Smart Glasses. A lot of happening around Meta recently as they growth to be a frontier AI Lab. A lot of the newest developments will power directly Essilor as they are partners with Meta AI …
Stockpicking for school stock "tournament"
So in order to teach kids the stock market in our school, they host a stock simulation game, where you get 50k virtual money and whoever performs best at the end gets a cash price. Im investing myself so I am aiming to win this price. funny enough this teaches …
DKS at ~11x earnings: how much damage can Foot Locker do?
DKS closed Monday at $123.63. Management is guiding to $10.94-$11.94 in EPS this year, so the stock is around 10-11x guidance. That got my attention. The latest filing also makes the discount pretty easy to understand. Dick’s own business still looks healthy. Q2 comps grew 4.9%, and segment profit rose …
Get a report on any Swiss stock
Hey guys, I want to share a free tool I made for researching Swiss stocks. I know that recently with all the vibe-coded tools, self-promotion has been a sensitive topic here, so just to be clear and respectful of the sub rules: the tool is completely free and does not …
Advice for where to start?
I've read (in part) BG's Security Analysis (margin of safety) I've looked at balance sheets (interesting) Is the value investor just hitting refresh on their keyboard waiting for a stock they've valued to fall into 'buy'? struggling to be sensible/stay engaged