Posts
Quantum Stocks
What are the best quantum computing stocks for the next 5-10+ years I’ve been researching quantum computing as a potential long-term investment (5–10+ year horizon) and would appreciate some feedback from people who have followed the industry longer than I have. So far, the companies that seem to come up …
Meta Platforms conservative fair value ~$810/share (feedback welcome)
Would appreciate pushback on the assumptions below. I'm currently landing at fair value of \~$810/share vs. \~$640/share. For context, META is one of my largest positions in my portfolio (\~$3mm cost, check my post history for context) Link to my model on Google Sheets: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dlt-9YaB1uV3RF4jz6snuS2GCahCeZPJHuCKcCUIm10/edit?gid=1127915579#gid=1127915579](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dlt-9YaB1uV3RF4jz6snuS2GCahCeZPJHuCKcCUIm10/edit?gid=1127915579#gid=1127915579) * Assuming revenue grows 20% …
Netflix at a 4.3% cash flow yield is the definition of value
Netflix is a company pretty much everyone knows, especially in this sub. The stock has been hammered over the last few months, and it may have been for good reason this company at 40x earnings is overpriced. Well now we are down about 50% from there. Warranted? Maybe, but at …
Is Nvidia priced for perfection?
Nvidia's price climbed from about $11 in 2022 (split adjusted) to over $200 currently. After a run like that, people call it overvalued or priced for perfection. The idea is that everything has to go right from here, and that at this price there is no room left for disappointment. …
An Open Letter to ValueInvesting Mods
You really need to allow a well thought and well presented research ideas on stock analysis which are qualitative in nature and does not adhere to a strict definition of value investing, which is arguably too narrow. Qualitative analysis is just as much part of value investing as quantitative, even …
Tracking DCF portfolio vs index - S&P 500
I was working on a discounted cash flow tool using claude and thought of using the methodology to screen the entire S&P 500. I am running it since last 40+ days now. Some are loosers but overall performing better than index for now. It is purely mathematical. I want to …
CSL (ASX: CSL) Follow-Up: The Probability Model Behind My Investment Thesis (Challenges Welcome)
This is the math behind my earlier CSL post and how I sized my position. I run this through a Bayesian split rather than a single-point forecast, and it comes out to a 69% probability of a full recovery case: plasma volumes keep growing, cost-per-litre pressure eases as the network …
Quick survey – building a journal app for VALUE INVESTORS. Is this actually a real need? I'm at a bit of a crossroads.
I'm building an investment journal app for value investors, and I'm about halfway built. It's not finished yet – features are incomplete (viewable but not functional yet). But I'm starting to worry this might just be me building something I think is useful rather than something people actually need. So …