Buy CSL by Jul 18, 2027.

This is the math behind my earlier CSL post and how I sized my position. I run this through a Bayesian split rather than a single-point forecast, and it comes out to a 69% probability of a full recovery case: plasma volumes keep growing, cost-per-litre pressure eases as the network expansion and efficiency programs land, ROIC climbs back toward 14–15% (still under the historical 20%+ peak, but strong for a healthcare oligopoly), earnings grow \~9–10% a year, and the stock …