Posts
When the bull case is 8x the bear case, there's no 'fair value' left to anchor to. Morgan Stanley's SpaceX initiation.
Morgan Stanley initiated SpaceX at $300. Bear case $75, bull case $600. Same analyst, same day, an 8x spread! I'd say its this wide because...One part of SpaceX is a real business you can model (Starlink, launch contracts), and the other is pure optionality/ideas (Starship economics, satellite and AI buildout) …
As a Value Investor, Do You Ever Pay a Premium for Good Businesses?
If so, how much? Explain/discuss/debate Examples of where you paid up?
Never bet against Google. Google is in its strongest position ever.
I stopped doing cheerleading for Google ever since its returns exceeded my expectations. But now it seems this is necessary again because I m seeing lots of people starting to doubt Google's valuation. Someone posted a very sad, poorly put together bear thesis on Google assuming some arbitrary heuristics benchmarks …
How to invest with your child's Trump Account as a value investor.
How would Buffett invest in this account. Would he max it out yearly? Or just not bother with this account? More details on Trump Accounts: [https://trumpaccounts.gov](https://trumpaccounts.gov)
Alphabet : Priced to flawless execution
I’ve been running some reverse DCF numbers on Alphabet ($GOOGL) to see what the current price of \~$367 is actually implying about its future cash flows. I wanted to share my breakdown, look at what the market is pricing in, and get your thoughts on the Capex dilemma. Let’s look …
Reddit or AppLovin
Probably some bias asking this on Reddit, but curious what people think. Both are advertising businesses, but with very different models. **Reddit** monetizes one platform with a unique user/community moat. **AppLovin** monetizes thousands of third-party apps through its AI advertising platform. My biggest concern with AppLovin is platform risk. Apple …
MU hitting its fair value?
Has anybody tried to calculate the fair value of the stock? I tried the DCF and P/FCF approaches in a couple of ways. 1) With DCF at 4% discount rate, 1% terminal growth rate and FCF following the projected price fluctuations of DRAM and nand flash (0.4 correlation each on …
Learning to read a company through 3 lenses (value, growth, quality). Tried it on Microsoft, is 23x fair or am I missing something?
I have been teaching myself to look at a company through three separate lenses, Value, Growth and Quality, and writing down what each one says on its own. MSFT was the boring one to start with. Numbers are from the FY25 10-K (filed 2025-07-30), price around $389, market cap about …
Is NVDA a buy?
The PE is looking pretty decent, but then again there are concerns of an AI bubble. What do you think? Is it a buy or has it run its course?
FUELCELL ENERGY, Inc., another hype-cycle: Beware!
I wrote this article about 1 1/2 months ago. The execs just announced another dilutive offering… for the Millionth time. It was rather predictable, and I predicted it. Criticism welcomed. Just be fair. **Valuation and Implications** For long-term value-focused investors, [FCEL -24.40%↓](https://substack.com/search/%24FCEL) is probably an uninvestable proposition! The red flags …