Posts
Pepsico dilemma
I am genuinely torn on PepsiCo right now because while on paper it looks like a great value play, the risks make me hesitate. On the positive side, seeing the stock drop from $180 down to around $126 means it is trading at roughly 16.5x forward earnings, which is a …
CarGurus (CARG): debt-free, 26% operating margin, but the 9.9% FCF yield is ~6.6% once you normalize tax and SBC
**Thesis.** CarGurus is the most-visited car listings site in the US, with no financial debt, a 26.5% operating margin and a buyback that cut the diluted share count by 29% since 2022. After shutting down CarOffer in 2025, what's left is a clean subscription business. My problem is the growth: …
OWL — misunderstood asset manager?
​ I've been looking at Blue Owl Capital (OWL) and I think the market may be misunderstanding the business. OWL manages $319B and roughly 90% of its revenue comes from permanent capital, meaning it doesn't constantly need to raise new funds just to replace expiring ones. Most of its revenue …
I tracked the 13F filings of 64 long-term value managers back to 2016. Only 8 stocks ever made their top 5.
I wanted to see where long-term managers agree, not what one of them owns. So I took 64 of them (Berkshire, Pershing Square, Himalaya, Akre, Fundsmith, Lindsell Train, Baupost, Markel, Sequoia/Ruane Cunniff and others) and only counted a stock when it's at least 3% of that manager's 13F. A 0.3% …
Rentokil Initial
Rentokil Initial looks like a possible overreaction play, pulling back from over 600p down to around 380p to 400p in London and $20 to $24 on its US listing, where it trades at roughly 13x to 15x forward earnings—well below its historical mid-20s multiple and a massive discount to main …
Wait until CPI to buy consumer stocks
(Why there isn’t an “advice” flair??) If you plan to buy any consumer stocks like nke, mcd, nflx, pep, Uber, etc, please wait until cpi next week. I have a feeling that this cpi report could surprise to the upside, given the persistently elevated & still accelerating pmi price paid …
FYI, Berkshire Hathaway bought more shares of Lennar last Thursday and Friday, $192.6 million dollars worth - SEC Form 4 filing
[https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315090/000119312526414744/xslF345X06/ownership.xml](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315090/000119312526414744/xslF345X06/ownership.xml) Berkshire Hathaway now holds 28,438,045 class A shares and 568,028 class B shares of Lennar. It'll be interesting to see if BRK (my opinion, Ted Weschler) keeps buying when shares hit these price levels.
UL Solutions: A sneaky strong b2b2b2b brand moat in electrical components certification.
Usually I think that brand is one of the weaker types of moats (looking at you nike). But UL Solutions has one of the more uniquely powerful brands I’ve ever seen. Let me explain. I work at some industrial manufacturing company. I learned through this job that every potentially dangerous …
What do you think about Bending Spoons?
Bending Spoons $BSP started trading in july. They basically buy startups at a fraction of their valuation So far they have acquired Wetransfer Airtable AOL Vimeo Eventbrite Meetup Evernote Miro (last month) Once they acquire it they fire most of the people. Do you think this would be value investing …
Meta is suddenly flavor of the month
Muse aside, Meta is nearly everyone's favorite stock right now. How things have changed: a month ago, nobody would touch it due to the ongoing trial. Is it too late to get into Meta now? Has the easy money been made, or can it go much higher from here long-term?