When I started my deep dive into Celsius holdings, I was very much expecting the output to indicate a quality company trading at attractive prices.
As I learnt about the company, I started liking them more and more. However, when I finally completed my model, I was surprised to see just how much growth was priced into expectations prior to the 45% collapse, and how even at these compressed prices, Celsius does not indicate a quality investment.
Obviously, they could outperform on both growth and margins, but I tend to lean more conservative in my assumptions. Especially when they have already reached the 3rd highest market share (between Monster and Red Bull) in combination with the industry itself only expected to grow at about 6.50%, and finally a more competitive environment with large players like Costco entering the field
at about $29/share, I view the company at about 10 - 15% over valued with a 7-year IRR (expected return) of about 0%.
Today I am uninterested, but should the stock continue to fall, I could be enticed to initiate a position!
You can find my post with the growth/margin assumptions below.
let me know what you think!
[Celsius Holdings - growth gone awry — EquityForge](https://equityforge.ca/post_view.php?id=4)
Snapshot of Assumptions Below:
||FY2026|FY2027|FY2028|FY2029|FY2030|FY2031|FY2032|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Revenue|$3,018|$3,471|$3,888|$4,237|$4,555|$4,874|$5,191|
|Revenue Growth %|20%|15%|12%|9%|7.50%|7%|6.50%|
|Diluted Shares (M)|268|277|285|294|300|306|312|
|Operating Cash Flow|$438|$486|$525|$572|$615|$634|$675|
|OCF Margin %|14.50%|14%|13.50%|13.50%|13.50%|13%|13%|
|CapEx|$44|$49|$53|$54|$55|$57|$61|
|Total Debt|$723|$729|$656|$543|$492|$412|$270|
|Free Cash Flow|$394|$437|$472|$518|$560|$577|$614|
|Intrinsic Value / Share (USD)|$27|$28|$27|$29|$30|$31|$32|
|Implied P/FCF Multiple|18.4|17.6|16.4|16.2|15.9|16.2|16|