Posts
Anyone own BJ’s wholesale?
It’s got a PE around 21, Costco trades at 48. They’re Growing in Texas. They’ve primarily operated in the northeast but are trying to make inroads in growth areas now. Larger variety of items and a more convenient shopping experience than Costco. They also sell gas. No food court however. …
My first attempt at valuation - would love feedback to help me learn more! Geely Automobile (0175.HK / GELYF) DCF
I've been making my way through this subs wiki and found value ( :-) ) in the youtube links to courses from A. Damodaran. I downloaded his FCFF Valuation Model/Excel and have been getting familiar with it and that is the basis for this valuation. **Why Geely?** I started with …
TTD Is a Bad Investment: Everyone Has an Incentive to Cut Out the Middleman
I used to be a TTD investor myself, so this isn't coming from someone who has always hated the company. But at some point, **rationality has to come first**. Being emotionally attached to an investment thesis after the underlying business environment changes is how you lose money. I genuinely don’t …
Weight loss jab investment
My drug of choice was junk food. I went to 20 stone, tried everything- keto, etc but nothing ever worked. Then I tried Zepbound (aka Mounjaro), and I went down to 12 stone. In my opinion, it's one of the most transformative, revolutionary products of all time; it just works. …
A framework for evaluating moats in tech companies (metrics I actually look at)
Been investing for about six years. Work in tech. One thing I've gotten better at over time is distinguishing companies that are 'growing fast' from those with 'durable competitive advantages'. Confusing these cost me real money early on, and I know I'm not the only one. **The core question:** If …
The Trade Desk - Value Investment or Trap Without Growth?
**What happened?:** The Trade Desk is down 50% YTD and 85% from all time highs while the business still generates strong cash flow and carries little financial risk. At first glance this implies substantial upside but we must re-value the business to reflect the uncertainty of growth. **What does TTD …
The acquisition worked. But did Celsius pay too much? $CELH
I just published my deep dive on $CELH. The Alani Nu acquisition transformed Celsius’ growth story but the valuation has also changed dramatically. I break down: Alani Nu and the acquisition Revenue & margin growth The core Celsius brand Valuation and my DCF Preferred stock overhang Bull vs. bear case …
Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW): A Fork in the Road
Build-A-Bear's new "omnichannel" strategy will cause its revenue to nosedive. They are creating partner stores that don't deliver the experience. It generates quick cash at the expense of Build-A-Bear's credibility. Sacrificing what makes Build-A-Bear unique and meaningful for money, and damaging their reputation. Their next move is essential. Build-A-Bear Workshop …
Water shortages thesis
Been thinking about this since 2025 - finally pulled the trigger. Tell me why I am a genius or a moron depending on your provaction. **My thesis:** Water infrastructure is chronically underinvested, and three separate tailwinds are converging at once: aging pipe replacement, PFAS regulation forcing new filtration and testing …
How do you track Korean stock disclosures (DART filings) in English?
I hold a few Korean names directly (Samsung, SK Hynix) and noticed Korea's official English disclosure portal shows basically nothing in real time — filings are only translated voluntarily. Curious how others here who invest directly in Korean stocks handle this. Do you just rely on sell-side coverage, or is …