Posts
I don't believe the magnificent +70% revenue growth fiscal year 2028 announced by Nvidia, sorry.
Nvidia's official projection of 70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028 masks a fundamentally unsustainable spending cycle that cannot mathematically scale. Driven by hyperscalers, total AI capital expenditures are projected by Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan to reach $725 billion to $800 billion in 2026 before surging past $1.0 trillion to $1.2 …
Management projections are an argument, not a forecast. What a decade of assessing them taught me.
I spent about a decade in corporate banking and did two stints as CFO. In banking the job was to take whatever numbers a company put in front of us, work out how much of it we actually believed, and build our own projections from there. We never used their …
Are TIPS value?
I always like to compare the current market multiple, and it’s inverse the earnings yield ratio, to the risk free rate the government is willing to pay me. Right now the trailing PE for the S&P 500 is 29.6, and the forward is 20.3. So on a forward basis, the …
Thoughts on Braskem (BAK)
There's no doubt the company is in trouble since they're currently going through out-of-court debt restructuring and KPMG flagged them in their audits as a "going of concern". If the stock keeps falling, there's also a risk of getting delisted from the NYSE as they would fall under a dollar. …
Meta Can Afford the Fine. The Compliance Is the Real Cost.
I wouldn't go so fast saying it is bullish for META. The new regulation will be the thing that have long lasting effect. While things is not finalised, here are some new rules, all restricting screen time of teen **Daily time limit** — a default two-hour daily limit across Facebook …
I ran my true FCF screener on stuff I actually use in my life. DECK at 8% yield and 16% revenue growth is the standout. SBUX at 65x P/E, but two out of three frappuccinos taste like slush. Here's the full list.
Peter Lynch's core idea: ordinary investors have real informational advantages that Wall Street misses. You know which restaurant is packed, which software your team actually uses, which product line is growing. I applied that to my true FCF screener across a few dozen consumer names. Here are the highlights across …
NVDA: The best business in the world has nowhere left to put the money
The print itself was the usual: EPS beat, data center $89B, up 117%, now 92% of the whole company, next-quarter guide $108B against a $104B consensus. the number that actually matters came on the call: management pointed to roughly 70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028. from a company that has …
12 stocks for ‘bottom-fishing’ investors looking for cheap growth opportunities
**12 stocks for ‘bottom-fishing’ investors looking for cheap growth opportunities** Companies with stocks near 52-week lows that analysts expect to roar back include Dick’s Sporting Goods, McDonald’s and L3Harris By Philip van Doorn Aug. 26, 2026, 10:06 a.m. ET https://www.marketwatch.com/story/12-stocks-for-bottom-fishing-investors-looking-for-cheap-growth-opportunities-d232ea75 When selecting individual stocks, some investors look for quality and …
Anyone looked at DXC? P/FCF of 2X
$1.7 billion market cap $4.2 billion EV Debt to EBITDA of 1.3X Massive depreciation and amortization costs of around $1 billion per year. DXC was formed out of the merger of 2 old school IT outsourcing companies: computer sciences corporation (CSC) one of the oldest IT outsourcing companies founded in …
How do you prepare yourself to buy (open a position) or even buy some more when the market crashes or a stock has suffered a severe drawdown?
Is it something that comes with experience? This year I have been trying to only buy stocks that are down. I am trying to build the mentality to buy even when the market has crashed severely. I have been using the “saaspocalypse” as an opportunity to learn. Even though I …