Posts
Creating an Investing Criteria Checklist Using AI
Hello All, I am a relatively new investor in my early 30’s looking to find companies of good value in the stock market. I have had success with buying the dip during market slumps and holding through but I believe there is an opportunity cost if you wait for those …
What’s a company you follow that is planning for the long term instead of the short term?
What’s a company you feel is playing the long game even at the expense of the short term Edit: for bonus points explain WHY rather than just list a random name
I passed on Shopify at $94 and it's $149 fourteen weeks later. I did the full work to find out if I was wrong: P/E, FCF, Owner's Earnings it's still expensive.
Shopify was trading at $94 on May 14. I put it on my watchlist and didn't buy it. Fourteen weeks later it's $149, that is 59% higher. So I did the full work on Shopify, because I keep seeing the same argument here: great business, impossible price. The business is …
When do you decide it’s time to sell a stock and take profits?
I’m looking for advice on how to determine when a company is no longer worth holding. I mainly use these fundamental metrics to evaluate my stocks: Revenue Growth (5Y) Revenue Growth (1Y, TTM) Earnings Growth (1Y, TTM) ROE Debt to Equity Free Cash Flow (TTM) PEG (5Y Expected Mean) What …
TTD: Reminds me of META 2022
If you’ll recall, [Meta’s stock crashed to below $90](https://valueinvesting.substack.com/p/meta) in Nov 2022 over concerns that its growth was coming to an end. Apple had just released ATT, Tiktok was taking over attention share, Zuck stubbornly defended wanton Metaverse spend, and the Tech bubble was bursting — all at the same …
Advent, Stripe abandon US$50 billion pursuit of PayPal: Bloomberg
PayPal has struggled with modernising its payment technologies as rivals seized market share A CONSORTIUM of buyout firm Advent and payment processor Stripe has decided to abandon its pursuit of fintech pioneer PayPal Holdings, a potential deal that would have ranked as one of the biggest-ever leveraged buyouts, according to …
What percentage of your portfolio is cash?
I usually have 100% of my portfolio in stocks at all times. For context, my investing career started post-GFC when short term interest rates were zero or negative, and the Fed was pumping out QE after QE just to get employment one tick higher. Cash was trash, and I got …
Robinhood DRIP Purchases Extremely High
I have been automatically reinvesting my dividends in Robinhood for a couple years now. I can’t help but notice on almost all of my purchases it is in the top 50% price action for that day. It is also random timing during the day when it is actually reinvested as …
$ASO DD: The Same Setup as My +134% $CNC Call Last Year — Academy Sports + Outdoors at 6.5x Before Sept 9 Earnings (Full Retail Sector Breakdown: DKS, WMT, TGT, DG, DLTR, ANF, ULTA)
**TL;DR:** Last July I posted DD here on $CNC at $27.95 arguing a capitulation had mispriced a temporary problem as a permanent one. CNC is +134% since. Academy Sports + Outdoors ($ASO) is the same pattern in a different industry: down 31% from February on almost zero company news, trading …
Build a Bear tanked
Folks, What are we thinkin about BBW after today's \~30% drop? Revenue is shrinking, I get that. However, using roughly $35M normalized annual FCF as a starting point, I ran a pretty basic DCF with ChatGPT with these assumptions: 3% FCF growth for years 1–5, 2% growth years 6–10, 2% …