Posts
GO (Grocery Outlet) Turnaround Is Working + Insiders Bought Heavy + 26% Short Float
**My thesis 4 months ago was simple:** management was sandbagging, 36 bad stores were being cut, sticky inflation would push consumers toward discount grocery, and insiders were buying aggressively. Since then: * **36 underperforming stores closed**, removing roughly **$12M of annualized EBITDA drag** heading into 2027. * **Q2 beat expectations:** …
MCP for SEC filings, transcripts, screening, and more
Hello Everyone — I've posted here a few times over the past year to share the site I've been building ([www.dfin.pro](http://www.dfin.pro)). I'm a fundamentals-based value investor, and I'm developing this site exactly for people like me. There are a lot of trading-focused sites, but that's not what this is. Thanks …
Beginner mistake or not?
I went heavy on Amazon after listening to Chris Camillo for the last few months. Listening to him on YouTube is what introduced me to investing. Now I'm wondering if I made a mistake because everyone seems to be talking about Nvidia, and AMZN is rarely mentioned. Is Nvidia a …
Altria's reverse-DCF implies growth. Cigarette volumes say decline. Which one's wrong?
Screening batch of value names, Altria came out near the top: EBIT/TEV and FCF yield both 99th percentile, ROIC ~39% avg over 4 years, Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 4.7, Beneish -2.36. Trailing P/E 14.6, forward under 12, yield ~6.4%. Three things before I size in. Reverse-DCF off the current price …
BRK.B performance
How will brk.b perform in case of a decent 10+% pull back? Especially since they’re sitting on a huge pile of cash? Buybacks? Deploy cash into undervalued names and scoop them for cheap?
Isrg stock
Anyone been looking at Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) lately? Stock is down like a third from its January highs and I'm trying to figure out if this is finally a decent entry or a value trap in the making. The bear case seems to be all about competition - Medtronic's Hugo …
Nasdaq 100 vs S&P 500 over 30 year time horizon
I know this discussion gets beat like a dead horse but what are the thoughts of DCA into one or the other. Traditional I’ve always done S&P but as we continue to turn to a tech heavy environment is it worth take a sliver or half of the DCA and …
Design software stocks are getting hammered today—ADSK -8%, SNPS -7%, and BSY -6%. Any value here?
This is all because some AI bros tested the latest ChatGPT model in [3d modeling](https://x.com/tomkrcha/status/2095598645190291775) and [chip design](https://x.com/ChihYang04/status/2095637507337826741) yesterday. Do you believe the mission critical design software are going to be replaced?
Lululemon - my revised model - Value thesis intact
I wont mince words... Q2 was rough, but this is exactly where having a long term thesis matters. After revisiting my model and adjusting for lower growth and lower OCF margins, I still arrive at the same conclusion that I came to back in June. The long term thesis remains …
What is happening with Nike?
Nike has been falling consistently. Even with strong earning and strong growth in some quarters its has been falling. From $150 to currently trading at $38-39 range. Why it’s falling so much ? Recently around $45 all analyst were talking about that it will bounce back but still the same …