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REDDIT

Altria's reverse-DCF implies growth. Cigarette volumes say decline. Which one's wrong?

R
Sep 4, 2026 · 19:56

Screening batch of value names, Altria came out near the top: EBIT/TEV and FCF yield both 99th percentile, ROIC ~39% avg over 4 years, Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 4.7, Beneish -2.36. Trailing P/E 14.6, forward under 12, yield ~6.4%.

Three things before I size in. Reverse-DCF off the current price implies ~+3% perpetual growth. For a company managing ~8%/year cigarette volume decline, that's the market pricing in growth, not managed decline. Smoke-free transition finally getting priced in, or is this just P/E-anchoring off the rest of the staples sector?

Price/book is -43, two decades of buybacks outrunning retained earnings. Normal for this name, or does negative book value change anything about how I should read the balance sheet here?

Institutions net buying, +1.7% recent 13F flow, but zero open-market insider buys in 6 months. Meaningful gap, or just how comp/blackout windows work at a company like this?

Would be a real position, not a starter. What am I missing?