Posts
Is rate hike now inevitable or not?
Today’s CPI was mixed but slightly hot: Headline CPI: +0.4% month-on-month, exactly as expected. Headline CPI: +3.4% year-on-year, exactly as expected. Core CPI: +0.3% month-on-month, hotter than the +0.2% forecast. Core CPI: +2.4% year-on-year, in line with expectations and down from 2.5%. If rates are hiked, how will this impact …
Why do stocks go down even when their reports are all mostly positive/beat?
Am I just fucking stupid? What am I missing? You know, I'm not this AI/Chip sector guy, but I decided to dabble with my money a bit, chose Broadcom to invest for a year or so and later decide what to do next. Researched the stock (among other things) for …
BBWI looks like a bargoon in plain sight.
Trading around **$18.37** (Market Cap: **$3.70B**), Bath & Body Works stock has shed over 70% from its post-spin/pandemic highs. The market is pricing BBWI as a distressed or secularly decaying retail asset, yet operations continue to produce roughly $600M–$650M in annual free cash flow (**FCF yield** of >25%), supporting an …
People are being too bearish on Uber
People love to claim uber vs AV is same as apple vs Nokia, Netflix vs blockbuster. However, these are just very lazy argument without deep thinkings I can list counter examples like EV vs legacy car, perplexity vs Google, Amazon vs Walmart, Airbnb vs bookings, etc If you look at …
Thoughts on copart's intention to aquire ACV auction?
Started buying copart this year. I have yet to dig into the latest earnings report, but I did see they intend to aquire ACV auction. I need to do some more research on the deal, but it is all cash deal. On the surface (without looking too deeply yet) it …
What do you think about Adobe's earnings?
The overall earnings for this quarter were good, with record FCF and solid revenue, but the Q4 guidance was a bit light or in line. I would say that most fundamentals didn't change that much: margins are still healthy, FCF is strong, and the share repurchase program remains steady. But …
Fashion brands and conglomerates know an entire year in advance what will be trendy because purchasing needs to be done way out of season. Before an item even hits main production, it has gone through multiple rounds of tastemaker feedback, on the field testing and other kinds of cultural vetting.
So whenever you, some greasy redditor with worn-out New Balances, someone on the very very end of the supply chain, see something "blow up" or become "trendy" it has already been priced in months, probably quarters ago. So please for the love of god, don't base your stock purchases on …
How many individual stocks can you realistically follow well?
For people who own individual stocks rather than mostly ETFs: At what point does your portfolio become too large to actually follow the companies properly? With 5 companies, reading earnings and major filings seems manageable. With 15–20, keeping up with earnings, guidance changes, management commentary, competitive developments, and everything else …