People love to claim uber vs AV is same as apple vs Nokia, Netflix vs blockbuster.
However, these are just very lazy argument without deep thinkings
I can list counter examples like EV vs legacy car, perplexity vs Google, Amazon vs Walmart, Airbnb vs bookings, etc
If you look at the nature of rideshare business, it is just a commodity service with low margin.
Riders mainly care about time and cost, so it is impossible to offer a superior rideshare experience, thus no AV company can be like Apple.
Waymo market share already peaked in San Francisco, and uber market share has been stable among new markets Waymo enter this year.
And there is also the utilization issue, means AV not able to serve the market alone by nature
And it is also unlikely for the AV technology being controlled by only 2 companies. Actually Chinese AV companies have been very aggressive. We have already seen the threat is real in LLM field.
And if this AV market is really worth several trillion, do you believe Amazon and nvidia will just stand aside?
For any players to join this game, they won’t create a 4th/5th/6th… app, that will never work. They will just leverage uber or Lyft.
I am not saying uber won’t be affected. The company is exploring different ways to defend. It’s just naive for people conclude it will be zero in few years