Posts
A way to think about Moats and Also FICO.
I just finished one round of reading this excellent article written by our own u/\_quantitative The discussion is two parts, how to look at the moats. We normally associate moats with either keeping competition out or keeping customers from defecting, however the author says that perhaps we should also look …
Thoughts on Stryker? Should I buy it?
Thanks to everyone who replied here. After careful consideration I decided to buy Stryker at 273
Wingstop as value?
What do you think? Has strong gross profitability of 49.9%, lost in stock value nearly 65% over last year, Citibank called an upside of nearly 100%, and management wants to grab a higher-income consumer and those doing watch parties to insulate sales from people escaping fast-food consumption to save their …
How would you balance a stock’s valuation when comparing its ratios to the industry average versus its own growth potential?
I’ve built a stock analysis website and soon to be app called Auspex that scores companies on a 0-100 scale. Right now, the algorithm evaluates financial health by benchmarking standard valuation ratios directly against industry peers. However, this heavily penalizes high-growth companies that look wildly overvalued compared to slow-moving competitors. …
Thoughts on Expand Energy ($EXE)
The business: One of the major natural gas producers. Owns one of the most efficient sources. Recently bought Twin Eagle, a natural gas marketer. The business synergy is that this increases their pricing power, since they can leverage knowledge of price spreads by geography, season, and buyers. The risks: the …
Long ADBE / Short MU : Betting on a Momentum Reversal As Adobe Is A Value Stock
The trade is pretty simple: MU has become the AI momentum play, while ADBE has been left for the short. I think that gap can reverse. ADBE has been crushed on the fear that AI will destroy its moat. But underneath the stock price, Adobe is showing real AI traction …
Is MELI a buy at current levels?
I've been looking into MercadoLibre (MELI) and really like the long-term story, especially its position in Latin American e-commerce and fintech, and the differentiated position it offers in a portfolio. For those following MELI closely, how do you view the risk/reward at current levels? Seems like it had a recent …
Conagra (CAG) after the $1.9B loss: is the dividend still covered?
Edit: Conagra halved the dividend to $0.175 a quarter the morning the 10-K came out. I missed it. Corrected math in the comments. CAG has fallen far enough that the 10-K itself lists the share price as a trigger for the Q4 goodwill test. The number everyone repeats is the …
$AMRZ Insider Buying
Insiders including the ceo have been making consistent and notable insider buys for the past 2 years. The market price is well below any of their cost basis resulting in huge losses. Why were inisders so confident the share price aould appreciate? Is this stock undervalued at 9x EBITDA https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/2035989.htm
PRGS: A Mispriced Software Roll-Up Hiding in Plain Sight?
Progress Software (NASDAQ: PRGS) trades around $42, and the market appears to value it as a slow-growing legacy software company with leverage and acquisition risk. After digging through the business, I think that framing may miss the more interesting part of the story. PRGS isn't really a high-growth SaaS play. …