Posts
FICO Drop Is An Over-Reaction
Hot take: I think the FICO selloff is an overreaction. If we’re serious about making homebuying cheaper, why focus on credit scoring fees while brokers and agents collect thousands in commissions tied to the transaction value? FICO’s moat is lender trust built over decades. Cheaper alternatives are a threat, but …
Research & News App Recommendations
What stock research and market news apps and tools do folk recommend? I use IBKR for trading and it has good news bytes and stock analysis, including Morningstar. Just interested if folk use other apps, tools or sites to supplement? I have looked at: \- Bloomberg \- FT \- Seeking …
I reconstructed Bill Ackman's convictions from 2 years of public data. Now I run the news through them.
I’ve been working for a while on an idea: can you reconstruct how a famous investor builds his convictions, and then use that to understand which news actually matters to his portfolio? Starting with Bill Ackman, I scraped roughly the last 2 years of public material I could get: filings, …
Applovin: We know all the bull case, but what is the bear case?
Bull: Earnings and revenue guidance is still about like 50% give or take And its a 24 PE stock with 60% growth. Though it did die once and then reinvented themself like a phoenix AXON 2.0, Bear: Earnings and revenue boost is dependant on new models generally. It's very much …
Corporate Finance with corporate life cycle
Recently I went through a book called The corporate life cycle by Aswath Damodaran, absolutely worth reading. According to Damodaran, Companies are mortal, they are born as startups, growth and decline over a life cycle like humans. During the life period, many things change and many things have to be …
Invested heavily in Alphabet, but starting to have AI concerns.
I invested heavily in Alphabet at $340, believing its distribution and vertically integrated AI stack positioned it to dominate the AI era. However, I'm starting to have doubts. Gemini feels underwhelming compared to ChatGPT, and Meta's Muse genuinely surprised me. I expected Google to be first with an agent of …
MDB: Atlas stuck at 29% for 5 quarters, but contracted revenue just jumped 91%. Ceiling or coiled spring?
\*MDB crushed earnings, raised guidance, and fell 14% anyway. I read their actual database docs so you don't have to.\* So MDB reported Q2 a few weeks ago. Revenue up 30% to $772M (fastest growth in years), EPS $1.90 vs $1.19 expected, raised full-year guidance... and the stock face-planted 14% …
Should I buy NVTS if I already own MSFT, GOOGL, AAPL, AMZN, NVDA and PLTR?
I already own a significant of **MSFT, GOOGL, AAPL, AMZN, NVDA and PLTR.** I already own 17 shares Navitas with an average cost basis of 18.73. Is it worth to buy now and average down when I have tech exposure through the bigger names?
How Cooked is FICO Stock??
I've been monitoring FICO for a long time on my watchlist because it has historically been the definition of a toll booth/ monopolistic business. Yet, the fears around Vantage Scores disrupting their business is dragging the stock down to levels I never expected. FICO used to trade for an 88 …
Russel 2K looks like it wants to test the 200 EMA
This is usually not a great sign. The R2K was outpacing the other indexes for much of this year Thoughts? Opinions?