Posts
Making sense of Muse, the agentic model, and evaporating cash flow at META and GOOG
Meta has been spending a lot on the AI buildout. It generated over $40 billion in FCF TTM, but less than $2 billion in Q2 2026. With Muse, since it is mostly agentic, it seems it will consume a lot more tokens than a simple LLM. That means it should …
BRK just bought more LEN and mortgage rates hit 7.28%. Is it time to make a contrarian bet and buy deep value housing related stocks?
Be greedy when others are fearful seems to be exactly what BRK is doing.
FICO Valuation Template
Hi i have created a FICO valuation template that you can download and DIY your own valuation on FICO. The process: I looked at the funded Loans, Pull-thru, Borrowers (single or co-borrower), Shops and Bureaus and the number of Pull per shop and total pulls of the following: * Mortgages, …
Don’t get me wrong BBAI
I’m definitely bag holding this one hard; likely to the grave, but today BBAI is all green. Gonna be pretty exciting the day it goes from a baby bear to a big bull! Until then, small victories.
SpaceX - a deeper look
Since the IPO I've been trying to work out what SPCX holders are actually paying for at \~$2T. The S-1 and the Q2 report make it fairly clear. Three businesses under one ticker (FY2025): \- Starlink: $11.4B revenue, +$4.4B operating income, \~63% EBITDA margin \- Launch: $4.1B revenue, -$0.7B (Starship …
What do you do with your cash while waiting for something cheap?
I hold cash when nothing looks cheap. Once it exceeds 15% of my portfolio, I start putting the excess into bonds. Below that, I keep it available so I can always make at least one sizable purchase when an opportunity comes along. Curious to hear how others handle this.
I built an AI that everyday finds me stocks that meet my criteria and anyone can do this too
As I am typing this, I am still shocked this is possible and how easy it is to set this up for anyone. A few weeks back, I kept hearing about Muse, which is basically an AI assistant that can use its own computer and keep doing work for you …
Anyone buying Duolingo (DUOL)?
Admittedly, I don't get this company and I don't think it's a long term hold. It's supposed to be a learning company, and the mission is to "develop the best education in the world and make it universally available" except they don't optimize for "best education", they optimize for DAU. …
Is Airbnb Actually an AI Agent Winner?
I was listening to the Synopsis podcast (link: https://open.spotify.com/episode/660EsrfSOGB0gsBXbvoaor?si=Maj2WRdUQzOnXWH216jOVw) and there seems to be a consensus that Airbnb is going to be a net loser from AI agents because you can price check aggressively and list your home across all platforms, as managed by an AI agent. The market seems …
Market reaction on $MU post-earnings makes no sense.
[https://x.com/Stefanoski7](https://x.com/Stefanoski7) Strong earnings beat for $MU , but the market reacts with a sell-off. Disappointing short-term move, but this is where discipline gets tested. Fundamentals haven't changed.