Since the IPO I've been trying to work out what SPCX holders are actually paying for at \~$2T. The S-1 and the Q2 report make it fairly clear.
Three businesses under one ticker (FY2025):
\- Starlink: $11.4B revenue, +$4.4B operating income, \~63% EBITDA margin
\- Launch: $4.1B revenue, -$0.7B (Starship R&D)
\- AI (xAI + X): \~$3.2B revenue, -$6.4B
Starlink's EBITDA (\~$7.2B) is bigger than the whole company's adjusted EBITDA. The other two segments burn what it makes: Q2 capex was $18.4B, $15.8B of it on AI.
Rough math: 40M subscribers x $60 ARPU + $20B enterprise/gov by 2030, 60% margin, 20x multiple, discounted 4 years at 10%, gives Starlink \~$400B today. Add a generous $150B for launch and $250B for AI and you get \~$800B vs a \~$2.0T market cap. The rest is paying for Starship, orbital compute or Mars.
Curious how people here think about that gap: option premium, or tiny-float froth (\~4% of shares trade)?
Full text here: [https://investory.autobirds.com/spacex](https://investory.autobirds.com/spacex)
Not a recommendation.