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Capricorn enrgy
Capricorn energy. Cne.l The market cap is $290m. Cash is $142.7m. Receivables from Egypt are $84m. The company has production rights until 2040 Reserve replacement is running at 277%. Activists are negotiating a potential all-cash takeover. The stock trades around 300p. My estimate of fair value is 550-600p. The market …
Jiayin Group (JFIN) - Absurd Deep Value with Some Risks
Hi guys: prior to doing this write up -- I did want to first of all address the elephant in the room: China. The regulatory framework there makes it extremely easy to perform financial fraud and to disclose numbers which may not be accurate, but the stock price is a …
Brightstar Lottery - Q2 favourable rollovers for profits
I've been tracking this company for the last few months and for transparency sake I've made it my largest ever position (I'm technically in profit due to the dividend payments, but am a few cents down on my average cost per share). I am so sure on this one, but …
Reasons Netflix will continue to grow but also why it’s not showing as of now
Greg Peters has finally been left as the official Co-CEO of Netflix after Reed Hastings stepped down on June 4th leaving someone to take his place. Why this matters…… Hastings was a co-founder of Netflix. So, in 2023, bringing on Peter’s as another co-founder really was the start of what …
The words "bubble" and "mania" from a cultural POV ?
This is not AI slop. My actual brain is slop from this bubble mania. This is a 100% human mind dump purge. I'm not talking about the merits of long term investing, but just the vibe of the last 5-6 years. What does "bubble" and "mania" mean to you? Anything …
A Bearish Outlook Into Micron
>Note: I transposed this article from my own newsletter and formatting on Reddit made it a bit messy. Some tables and graphs that where presented as images are missing here. This is the first time I write about a position I do not hold, and after doing so I feel …
BFAM - Betting on Work From Home is coming to an end
Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc provide child care for corporate worker. The service is bought by corporate and use as employer benefit. Good B2B recurring revenue, sticky corporate contracts, valid MOAT They took a pretty big hit by covid, then the WFH culture future drop the stock price as the …
Visa at 28x earnings: "wonderful company at fair price" or just expensive? Running it through Buffett's framework
Visa is the stock where everyone agrees on the quality and argues about the price. Here's what the numbers actually say. The moat case Network effects are the core: more cardholders → more merchants accept Visa → more people want Visa cards. That loop has compounded for 60 years across …
Semis will dump and software will pump
Software has been increasing their capex significantly and it has led to semis pumping. However, soon enough, software will have to reduce their spending to protect their margins and they will focus on optimisation. As a result, I think that as soon as there is an announcement of a reduction …
Let’s talk commodity oligopolies
I am bored AF of reading AI slop opinions about SaaS and Mag7 companies, so here is something totally different: where I see good value in the commodities industries. Commodity businesses are an overall mid investment category because they are hugely cyclical and so buying at the wrong time can …