Hi guys: prior to doing this write up -- I did want to first of all address the elephant in the room: China. The regulatory framework there makes it extremely easy to perform financial fraud and to disclose numbers which may not be accurate, but the stock price is a function of supply and demand, and right now: the demand side should far exceed the supply side due to the reasons provided below:
* JFIN is currently trading at roughly a $200M market cap while having produced around $220M of net income in 2025. In other words, the company is trading below 1 P/E. Their revenue in 2025 was around 900 million so if their financials are even close to what they are reporting: this is an absolute gem.
* The book value per share is 12 dollars. Right now, you are buying the stock at an approximate 65% discount to the literal cash and assets sitting on their balance sheet.
* Company operates on a capital light model: it connects lenders with people who need money. Their cash on hand right now matches their debt, and assets to liabilities is also outstanding. Their AI-automated approval and processing systems have pushed their Return on Equity (ROE) to an exceptional 20%+.
* Management isn't just sitting around—they are proactively returning value to shareholders. They recently executed nearly \~$30 million in share repurchases (buying back over 4 million shares). On top of that, they paid out \~$40 million in dividends in 2025. The forward dividend yield right now is sitting at an absolutely insane \~20%.
* The number one institutional holder is Renaissance Technologies: the most successful hedge fund in the world. While overall institutional ownership remains extremely low right now, having a legendary quantitative fund taking the top institutional spot is a massive vote of confidence in the underlying fundamentals.
* The company shares have over 60% insider ownership with no recent selling. The public float is extremely low, meaning any sudden influx of institutional demand or retail demand will have a huge impact on the share price.
Let’s assume entirely zero growth moving forward. If the market eventually grants this highly profitable financial services company a terminal P/E multiple of just 3x to 5x (which is still rock-bottom for the sector), the fair value of this stock sits comfortably between $12.00 and $20.00 per share. The probability of this stock running up significantly over the next 6 to 12 months is exceptionally high because the float is being decreased while you get paid to wait.
The other risk is financial fraud: if the numbers they're releasing are not backed by actual data or don't reflect reality, then there is no point in even doing any analysis: but in terms of expected value, even if there is only a 20% probability of their numbers being even close to what they're reporting, this is still one hell of a gem and a risk worth taking.
**Disclosure**: This is not financial advice. Do your own DD. I am long JFIN shares and will look to add more if it dips any further.
**Amendment (June 23, 2026)**: so, their latest quarterly report has me in shambles -- I really did not think their guidance and report would be this bad. I am out on this investment: the regulatory pressures in China along with the incredibly bad guidance makes this a no-go for me. I do think the company will survive this and can counter with further expansion internationally, but I rather wait and see on this one. If they can issue better guidance and go back to profitability during the next few quarters this will definitely make a strong bounce-back, but the recent filings showed lots of red flags I did not expect to see. **Verdict: I DO NOT RECOMMEND INVESTING IN Jiayin Group (JFIN) AT THE CURRENT MOMENT. My above write-up was based on the assumption that their latest filing and guidance would be much better than it currently is.** Still a great deep-value play but just like Kohl's -- I was way too early and should have waited for their latest results to validate my assumptions. There is more downside risk to this and the shares I believe will discount further from the price I based my thesis on ($4.10 USD). I will re-visit and re-assess whether I want to invest again if the shares trade at a 50-75% discount from today ($1.00-2.00 USD per share).