Posts
GRPN: the little company that could
GRPN is my biggest holding. I think they are pulling off one of the best business turnarounds we have seen in the past decade and the market is dead asleep on it. Am I regarded? Read and decide for yourself. My bull case has three legs: a platform with massive …
Any hope for CVX?
The price of CVX seems to have come down recently so I am thinking of buying it again, however I’m still a bit skeptical. 1. the margins seem to be declining 2. the PE ratio is pretty high 3. the dividend payout ratio is over 100%. It is however an …
At these valuations, how can anyone NOT buy Copart like there’s no tomorrow?
Hey guys , forget the usual names like MSFT, META, or ADBE because Copart ($CPRT) is on sale , and I am struggling to find a reason not to load up. They own the actual land (junkyards/processing facilities), creating a massive, asset-backed moat that competitors simply cannot replicate due to …
A Simple Intrinsic Valuation of Microsoft (MSFT)
I’m sure you’re all sick and tired of Microsoft posts, however valuations can vary dramatically depending on the creators expectations of Azure and return on AI infrastructure projects. I have taken a simplistic approach to attempt to provide a sense-check for these models. Would be great to hear your thoughts …
Intrinsic Value no longer applies
With so many investors using a set buy strategy in ETF's or index funds is intrinsic value even applicable anymore? The whole point of passive investing is you invest regardless of what's happening in the market/companies. This literally makes intrinsic value a mute point because you are investing regardless of …
The AI capex that crushed Microsoft's FCF is the exact reason it's mispriced the market made the identical judge on Amazon for two decades. 39x on FCF is it really expensive?
The market calling Microsoft at 39x FCF expensive reminds me of Amazon. For two decades Amazon looked expensive on FCF while it poured money into data centers and logistics. The same overreaction looks like it is hitting Microsoft now: its worst month since 2000, already down two time around 34% …
Thinking about selling PANW and Fortnite question
FORTINET\*\*\*\* autocorrect omg So this is for my personal brokerage, I have separate retirement accounts. I own 10 stocks of PANW and 10 of Fortinet. I am current up 70% for PANW (cost basis $183) and 62 for fortinet ($97). I only started investing about 2.5 years ago. These were …
AIRT eps>stock price
Huge opportunity to get in on a stock so cheap it’s hard to find historical comparison. Do some work here. They just posted a one time $111.2M bargain purchase accounting gain! AIRT is a portfolio of airline related businesses. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353184/000035318426000056/pressreleaseairtfy26.htm Short interest is 16,574 shares and the company trades very …
Deep Dive: Why Wall Street’s HBM4 Models for Micron/SK Hynix vs. Samsung are Structurally Broken (A Multiplicative SCM Risk Model)
**TL;DR (Too Long; Didn't Read)** **The Core Premise:** Wall Street models HBM4/HBM5 market share using independent, additive yields. Physical 3D integration dictates that supply chain risks are **multiplicative, not additive**. **The Alliance Bottleneck:** The TSMC-Hynix/Micron alliance faces cross-border logistical latency (3-4 weeks TAT troubleshooting) and heterogeneous material warpage. Crucially, they …
Accenture at 7x FCF — the cheapest quality name in IT services, or a franchise whose unit of sale is being automated?
**Quick background**: Accenture (NYSE: ACN) is the largest IT-services and consulting firm in the world — \~780,000 people, roughly half strategic consulting and half multi-year managed services, capital-light, ROIC near 20%, net cash on the balance sheet. After a steep de-rating it trades around $129 (≈$79B market cap, as of …