Posts
Uber: the business thesis played out, the stock round-tripped to $75, and the margin of safety mostly closed. Is it a buy here or not?
Uber is the cleanest example I've found of the question value investors actually wrestle with: what do you do when a genuinely great business is trading at a merely *fair* price? Quick context for the setup. Bill Ackman's Pershing Square began building an Uber position in **Q1 2025** — the …
Zoetis (ZTS): 70% gross margins, ~20% ROIC, and now ~11x forward earnings. What am I missing?
I’ve been looking at Zoetis after the recent selloff, and I think it is an interesting value setup. **The simple question:** Is Zoetis facing a structural impairment in companion animal demand and pricing power, or is the market overreacting to a cyclical pet-care slowdown and a messy reset in expectations? …
Msft and all saas are dead or almost
Every day i see some posts to buy microsoft because its cheap and has value. The truth is that im looking at most companies trying to figure out through ai to substitute all tools and make them as each CEO or whatever c-level is committed to it. I think even …
$JACK or $WEN - who is the better turnaround candidate?
This post is kind of an educational post. A lot of people are currently talking about WEN and JACK. I want to give you some advice on what to look for in such a turnaround setup. Normally, if you want to compare a company to another you will look into …
Who is long HUM?
I am looking at Humana as a potential short. The stock is trading way outside of its historical trailing AND forward earnings even looking into 2027. In fact if you want to be bullish and see HUM putting up 17 dollars in EPS in 2027 that’s still a 24x forward …
The Mathematical Bottleneck in Automotive Secure Enclaves: Why Global Fleets Must Upgrade to NASDAQ:NXPI Hardware
**The Technical Bottleneck** Running next-generation Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) lattice math on classical silicon architectures triggers crippling network latency and severe data packet fragmentation across modern transport networks. Legacy Arithmetic Logic Units (ALUs) lack the specialized hardware-level engines required to efficiently process complex polynomial Number Theoretic Transforms (NTTs), causing instruction cycles …
Investment thesis Braze (BRZE)
The future of marketing is --> co-created, omni channel & personalized. And we are in the midst of this changing industry. When you interact across platforms, you leave traces of data!. Braze can leverage these cross channel interactions; create a profile on you and address you through these channels. Imagine …
SaaS sold off as a sector this year. The Value ranks say the sorting still needs to happen by hand.
Hi again r/ValueInvesting, for those who haven't seen my posts before: I'm the GM of the stock research side at Obermatt, a Swiss investment research firm. We rank stocks across 60+ markets on four factors (Value, Growth, Safety, Sentiment) relative to their industry peers. Standard disclosure since I work there: …
HUBS (& CRM) - A short write up
HubSpot ( HUBS ) is a marketing software as a service platform - competing with SalesForce ( CRM ). HUBS is down 53% YTD. Revenue up 23% YOY (5 Y CAGR 28%) and operating income up from -23M to +29M YOY (1Q2026). Asset/Liabilities is 2,1x and Income/Liabilities is 0,025. HUBS …
Makes a fortune in cash. Costs almost nothing to run. Protected by patents until 2037. COLL at $35 looks too cheap.
TL;DR: Collegium ($COLL) sells patent-protected extended-release drugs for pain and ADHD. Asset-light, 61% gross margins, ~$290M owner earnings, revenue compounding ~20% for five years. Including ~$488M of net debt, the whole enterprise trades around 5.6x owner earnings. I think the market is pricing a cash-gushing business as if it's dying …