I am looking at Humana as a potential short. The stock is trading way outside of its historical trailing AND forward earnings even looking into 2027. In fact if you want to be bullish and see HUM putting up 17 dollars in EPS in 2027 that’s still a 24x forward PE, they historically trade in the 16-18x range.
Not to mention that’s over a year and half out. This isn’t a utility company that has highly predictable earnings. It’s a regulatory risk nightmare. Remember when trump sent one tweet out and this thing plummeted 25% in a day…
I think it’s priced to perfection on execution. Near term full year 2026 won’t be good, management knows and has said that through guidance.
My only concern and what I need thoughts on is where am I wrong? And my biggest scare is tech crashing and everyone rotating into healthcare stocks pushing this thing up further or keeping it inflated past my expiration dates.
I don’t have a position, but would enter with longish dates puts. Lmk your thoughts.