Posts
Your no drama good valuation stocks?
Basically I’m interested in tickers where they are low pe, low debt, and generally go up or pay dividends without much issue. A few of my favorites are all, rf, cf, and Cigna. I understand these all could go down in profit but generally they only go up and no …
GE Aerospace (GE): Momentum score of 90/100, 45% ROE, and a 6-model fair value that says it's 67% overpriced, here's where the debate actually lives
GE Aerospace is a genuinely high-quality business with real earnings power, but the market has priced in a trajectory that the current fundamentals cannot yet justify, and the Samsung-driven chip selloff yesterday is a useful reminder of what happens when peak-cycle pricing meets a reality check. **The mechanism and the …
GESHIP: P/E of 6.9x — A Valuation Anomaly in Marine Shipping
# GESHIP: P/E of 6.9x — A Valuation Anomaly in Marine Shipping > # Why This Stock Deserves Your Research Attention The Great Eastern Shipping Company Limited (GESHIP) is India's largest private-sector shipping company, operating in the marine shipping industry. Its fleet includes tankers and dry bulk carriers, serving global …
On Portfolio Construction and its Capital Allocation Conundrum
MU Structural change
SemiAnalysis projects that cumulative AI IT and datacenter capital expenditure from 2024 to 2029 will reach approximately $11.1 trillion (Save this). Annual capex is expected to exceed $2 trillion by 2028, growing almost every single year in the forecast window with no sign of deceleration.. SemiAnalysis projects outstanding AI-related debt …
Is Glanbia PLC the Sandisk of GLP-1/Wegovy?
The protein powder that I used to buy went from $60 to $80, then yesterday, it's at $101. So I did a quick research and found that the demand for whey protein has gotten extremely high because of glp-1. Food companies are jumping in the fad by buying protein to …
Memory revenue is only up ~20-40%, but the memory makers' profits jumped an order of magnitude. What's actually driving the gap?
Trying to get my head around the memory cycle and something isn't adding up for me. Total DRAM+NAND revenue went from \~$170B in 2024 to \~$200B in 2025, and maybe \~$290B in 2026. So call it up 20% then 40%. Solid, but not insane. Meanwhile Micron's gross margin went from …
Most toxic monopoly I've seen
Autotrader in the UK (AUTO) is hilarious, they're such a monopoly their customers are trying to revolt but can't. Been searching for UK monopolies for my substack and find this vehicle selling platform. 63% margin, 51% ROIC and they convert literally 100% of their free cash flow (capex is under …
AAPL: I do not fully trust clean mega-cap reactions anymore
AAPL used to be one of the names where I trusted the first clean reaction more than I should have. Big liquid stock. Real buyers. Less nonsense than high-beta names. That was the story I told myself, and it made me lazy. The trade that changed my view was not …
How to frame the right problem
I was inspired by Charlie Munger's inversion approach to problem solving to write this article about reframing the problem to solve problems more easily