Posts
Circular financing is already a tell of softer Nvidia demand
The bull narrative for Nvidia is simple: demand massively outpaces supply, and will for years to come. But that's hard to square with the flood of circular-financing deals. In just the past few days: * [Nvidia is in talks to guarantee \~$250B of financing for an OpenAI data center](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/nvidia-talks-openai-guarantee-250-233930971.html), plus …
Can someone explain the Apple share price like I'm 5?
It's up 20% in a month. It's at a P/E of 40. It's not growing revenue much, and not developing much in the way of new lines. Phones improve, but not so much that you are rushing out for a new one. It's more like replacing a microwave oven because …
Paypal stock rises as CEO keeps door open on potential deals
PayPal (PYPL) stock rose more than 4% on Tuesday after the payments giant defended its multiyear turnaround plan without completely closing the door to a potential merger. "While there is still significant work ahead, I have strong conviction in our direction and in our ability to execute," PayPal president and …
Looking at $DECK as a value play
Ive been going through Schwab’s list of A picks this week and $\`DECK stood out to me. Honestly, when I first saw the ticker I thought "is this black and decker?" It turns out they are the shoemaker behind Uggs and Hoka...I never got the appeal of uggs, but i …
IF $CBRL $28 > $52 means $PLAY $10 > $20+
At CBRL's nadir, the equity value (mkt cap) was worth <$700MM with debt+leases at 5x depressed EBITDA. Revenue growth is still negative, yet the mkt cap has surged to $1.2B. This was before the incompetent CEO was fired. What happened? Operating income margin recovered significantly as management took steps to …
I assign 15/60/25 probabilities to three Fed scenarios right now. Normally I think of the risks as 5/90/5. Here's what's making the tails wider and how I'm positioned for each.
I worry a lot. Too much probably. Whenever I think of Buffett saying an investor needs a world-class temperament over a world-class intellect, I even worry about that. For years I didn't worry much because I was in index funds. But the inelastic market hypothesis and Liberation Day tariffs pushed …
Why did Alphabet's P/E drop to 17.8 the same quarter net income hit $112B?
Alphabet's trailing P/E just fell from **21.7** to **17.8**. In the same quarter, net income more than doubled to **$112.193B** and diluted EPS came in at **$9.11**. If your first reaction is that the stock got cheap, hold that thought. No position in GOOGL. Quick context for anyone who doesn't …
I made a tiny tool that turns valuation multiples into assumptions
I built a small valuation tool that breaks down what a stock multiple actually assumes. Enter a P/FCF multiple, required return, and growth rate, and it shows things like implied growth, payback time, sensitivity, and how much of the valuation depends on cash flows far in the future. I made …
NVDA: Investment Thesis, Current Valuation, Fair Price, Checklist, Due Diligence, and Watchlist Note
# Investment Thesis * NVIDIA is the **fastest-growing mega cap** in the market at its **lowest relative valuation** in five years: \~21x forward earnings against a 37.7x five-year average - below even the -1 standard deviation band. * Consensus expects **\~44% annual EPS growth** for the next five years. That …
I backtested every Seeking Alpha "Top 10" list since 2022. The boring approach (hold 12 months) beat the active one (switch every 6). Full data and methodology inside.
Quick context for this sub: every few weeks someone here asks whether Seeking Alpha's picks are worth following. I can't answer that in general, but I can share four and a half years of data on one specific corner of it – the free "Top 10 Stocks" lists – because …