- Entry
- $50.36
- Now
- $50.36 +0.0%
- Target
- —
- Score
- —
I worry a lot. Too much probably. Whenever I think of Buffett saying an investor needs a world-class temperament over a world-class intellect, I even worry about that. For years I didn't worry much because I was in index funds. But the inelastic market hypothesis and Liberation Day tariffs pushed me back to Graham, and now I have a portfolio of individual picks with macro worries layered on top of company-specific worries. My macro framework mostly comes from Scott Sumner. …
— ORIGINAL POST ·
I assign 15/60/25 probabilities to three Fed scenarios right now. Normally I think of the risks as 5/90/5. Here's what's making the tails wider and how I'm positioned for each.
· r/ValueInvesting
· Jul 28, 2026