Posts
Avoid Diluters
[Here's a link to the full study](https://riskpremiumresearch.substack.com/p/forecasting-dilution) I've noticed that companies will announce a dilution and, almost always, the stock will immediately tank. I got curious and dug through the data of 10,000+ dilution events since 2016 and over 3,000 discrete dilution events since 2021 (pulling filing to the exact …
TPL insider is buying one share every business day. anyone else seen this pattern?
noticed something weird on TPL and wanted to see if anyone else has flagged it. Horizon Kinetics has been buying one share of TPL almost every trading day for the last month. not one thousand, not a hundred. one share. 19 buys in 20 days, 18 of them exactly 1 …
SK Hynix's ADR Gap isn't Supposed to Exist Yet
Three days ago SK Hynix priced its ADR at $149 in New York and raised $26.5 billion. In the largest foreign listing in US history. First day it closed up 13% at $168.49. Today Seoul dropped it another 15.4%. Kospi followed straight down 8.95% at the 7,000 level, triggering a …
Adobe bear case straw-man and response: ARR deceleration (10 consecutive quarters), Chegg/BlackBerry parallel, executive churn vs. deferred revenue acceleration, USASpending.gov contract data, and a one-third casual user stress test. Looking for pushback on the ARR trend specifically.
The bear case that I think has the most analytical teeth isn't the Chegg comparison or the executive churn. It's this: organic ARR growth has decelerated for ten consecutive quarters, from 10.9% to 10.5%. That's a sustained directional trend that can't be dismissed as noise. My best response: when enterprise …
Charlie Munger Archive
Victoria PLC 2028 Bonds - An asymmetric Opportunity
On 3rd July, I published a detailed write‑up on Substack explaining why the **Victoria PLC 2028 bonds**, trading at **\~20 cents**, offered one of the most asymmetric opportunities in UK credit for investors willing to engage with a complex situation. Five days later, the timing proved unusually fortunate: Victoria has …
On Portfolio Construction and its Capital Allocation Conundrum
SK Hynix and the silicon cicada
SK Hynix lists on Nasdaq this week. $28 billion raise. Biggest foreign listing of its kind in years. Most people are writing about accessibility. US funds finally get a way in. One analyst put it cleanly: the listing removes an accessibility discount, not a quality discount. Same day Bank of …
Sun Art Retail
I wrote up a detailed deep dive on Sun Art Retail (6808.HK) - can be found on Substack (free to read) under the username boringcorners. WHAT MAKES THIS INTERESTING 2nd largest supermarket player by revenue in China behind Walmart/Samsclub Net Cash > Mcap Unencumbered investment properties >2x Mcap. Get paid …
Is Röko a Lifco all over again?
Just pulled the paywall on this Röko/Lifco writeup. Enjoy!