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The bear case that I think has the most analytical teeth isn't the Chegg comparison or the executive churn. It's this: organic ARR growth has decelerated for ten consecutive quarters, from 10.9% to 10.5%. That's a sustained directional trend that can't be dismissed as noise. My best response: when enterprise contract lengths extend 30%, new ARR growth rates mechanically appear lower even as cash collected and contracted revenue accelerates. The measurement period for ARR doesn't fully capture multi-year contract commitments …
— ORIGINAL POST ·
Adobe bear case straw-man and response: ARR deceleration (10 consecutive quarters), Chegg/BlackBerry parallel, executive churn vs. deferred revenue acceleration, USASpending.gov contract data, and a one-third casual user stress test. Looking for pushback on the ARR trend specifically.
· r/SecurityAnalysis
· Jul 13, 2026