Posts
True FCF yield and Y220 applied to consumer discretionary and staples names. DECK at 8.43% yield and 16.5% CAGR is the standout. Looking for pushback on the GTM thesis specifically - is AI really killing enterprise B2B data or is the market overpricing the doomsday scenario?
The specific analytical question I'd most welcome pushback on from this community: ZoomInfo (GTM) trades at 23.96% true FCF yield with a 10.54% three-year revenue CAGR and a Y220 already at the 20% threshold. The market is pricing it as a dying business. The bear thesis is that AI scrapers …
I own GEV because the turbine is already sold
I own GEV. Not because it's an AI-power stock. Because they already sold the turbines. Last quarter the slot book went from 100 GW to 116. They signed 20 GW, converted 10, actually shipped 3. Same customers are buying the transformers from them too. Once that machine is sitting in …
Post-Dilution Performance
This was the natural close to a series of articles that I've written about dilution. I went in with the intuition that dilution isn't an automatic drag on stock performance, but the practitioner in me constantly saw companies announce dilution which was followed by an immediate drop in share price. …
Cameco is in the uranium-spot basket. It already sold the pounds
I noticed the nuclear tape still prices Cameco, Kazatomprom, NexGen, and Uranium Energy as one uranium-spot trade. I don't think they are. Cameco is already contracted for more than 28 million pounds a year through 2030. Q2 realized US$67.79/lb against US$85.18 spot. That's old ceilings, not a scarcity premium. KAP …
CoreWeave just paid $640 million in interest in a single quarter, up 139% in a year
To buy all those chips, they borrow huge amounts of money, using the chips themselves as collateral. CoreWeave now owes around $72 billion and lost $626 million last quarter, most of it just interest on the debt. A lot of this debt gets rated "safe," even though CoreWeave itself is …
Walmart
Can google earn enough to justify their capex spend
Here is my thinking, there are 3 ways a company can earn from AI. 1. Field of dreams, build it and they will come. 2. Boost their core product 3. Sell compute Clearly, Google are doing 3 with their Google Cloud growing 80%, but it's becoming harder to ignore the …
Alphabet made more from its investments than from Google. It sold almost none of them.
I recently saw that Alphabet reported $112.2bn of net income last quarter while the actual business, ads and cloud, earned $40.8bn of it, so I looked into where the rest came from. It is a $99.0bn gain on investments, and only $278m of that came from selling anything. $77,354m of …
FEG and Y220: two modifications to PEG that substitute true FCF for earnings and express growth as years to a target yield rather than a ratio. Methodology critique welcome.
The standard PEG critique from this community usually focuses on earnings quality. I decided to make some modifications: FEG replaces P/E with price-to-true-FCF (OCF minus CapEx minus SBC) and replaces earnings growth rate with three-year revenue CAGR. Revenue CAGR is more stable than true FCF growth as a proxy for …
MTCH: a declining cash cow still priced for a growth asset
I published a bearish valuation thesis on Match Group at approximately $37/share, with an $8–11 target over 24–36 months. The core question is whether Hinge deserves to keep Match Group trading at a substantial premium to distressed dating-app comps while the rest of the portfolio contracts. A few numbers: Match …