MTCH → $9.50 by Aug 16, 2029.

I published a bearish valuation thesis on Match Group at approximately $37/share, with an $8–11 target over 24–36 months. The core question is whether Hinge deserves to keep Match Group trading at a substantial premium to distressed dating-app comps while the rest of the portfolio contracts. A few numbers: Match Group payers peaked at 16.55M in Q3 2022 and have fallen to roughly 13.3M. Tinder payers are approximately 22% below peak. Revenue per payer has risen substantially during the same …