Posts
Etsy Demise - Put and Short - Continuing Downfall
After my last post regarding Etsy, and one prior when we were in the $75 range.... ETSY continues its materially weak business model into an era of irrelevance. In order to keep up their post-covid figures, they have allowed thousands of drop-shippers and overseas mass market products to infiltrate the …
Is Vance getting on a plane and Trump blockading the blockade just more “Art of the Deal” 4D chess theatrics?
It’s getting hard for the US to escalate on destroying an entire civilisation but it feels like this is just more tactics and we’ll be looking at a dip and recovery within the week. Trump can’t afford the high gas prices and just desperate for an off ramp, Iran knows …
Anyone else have a Dad that has been out of the market for decades because the "big one is coming"?
I feel like this is such a common theme I hear with people's Dads. My pop got laid off in 2008. He came from a country where the government could just take all your money on a dime's notice. So naturally he has an insane mistrust for the government. But …
What is a reliable and free stock analysis website?
what are your go to free stock analysis websites that are accurate? When I go online to review a lesser known stock, I use whatever Google recommends, Tip ranks, simply wall Street, motley fool. You know all the big names that pay Google millions of $. But each different site …
NVDA fair value is $96.66
lets start with the DCF because thats where this whole thing falls apart immediately. nvidia is currently trading at somewhere around 35-40x forward revenue. not earnings. revenue. to justify that in a discounted cash flow model you need to assume data center revenue grows at 40%+ annually for the next …
Live trading preferable due to high volatility?
Given the mad swings of the market in the current Iran/USA/Israel debacle I am starting to wonder if it might be worth paying for live trades rather than daily or twice daily dealing deadlines. I am mainly looking to add to my SIPP, and at the moment I'm dropping in …
TSLA at $190 is not a prediction, its just math. bear with me
ok so ive been looking at tesla numbers for a while now and i keep seeing the same bullshit narrative that this is still a "growth stock" priced for disruption. lets talk about why that makes no sense at current levels. first, the DCF. if you actually sit down and …
How to safely use buying power for vertical spread on GLD .
Hi Folks , I want to reduce my risk exposure and waana stick to GLD , PUT vertical spread with 10 or 20 width for a 30 delta put combo. Give my buying power , how safe is it to do such trades on GLD ? I'm around 10M Buying …
The Iran Conflict Market Cycle
**Phase 0 - Pre-ceasefire escalation** Conflict intensifies, uncertainty peaks. Market sells off or becomes highly volatile. Short interest builds as traders expect more downside. **Phase 1 - Rumors / anticipation of ceasefire** Leaks or diplomatic signals emerge. Smart money begins covering shorts quietly. Early buyers position for a potential relief …