After my last post regarding Etsy, and one prior when we were in the $75 range.... ETSY continues its materially weak business model into an era of irrelevance. In order to keep up their post-covid figures, they have allowed thousands of drop-shippers and overseas mass market products to infiltrate the once great platform. It's a coin-toss if you're getting a homemade seller or just another cheaply made product.
Their sales figures have declined QoQ for a while now, and their growth businesses (Depop) was sold off at a loss but for cash, which will allow a fake floor to be set in the stock as continued block buybacks occur every time retail gives up. Once corporate is done buying back this company's shares, I expect to see a 25-30% EV value haircut, along with an insane current P/E of 37+.
Depop was their fastest growing segment and it still sold for a loss. Add back Etsy's debt and we a far way from the real value of this company.
Pricing it out, $35/share at best in my current opinion.
I am short 30,000 shares. And let it be known I'm posting this after Etsy has dropped so it's not a "help move the stock" post. Do your own diligence and I welcome all feedback.