Posts
Tracked my buys this year. Am I setting up for underperformance?
Hey all, did a review of all my purchases YTD and here’s what I’ve been accumulating: V, MA, MSFT, META, UBER, SHOP, SoFi, Grab, TOST, CRWD, PANW, ZS, DT, CCJ, BWXT Meanwhile I’ve been slowly booking profits on semiconductors in small chunks since January. YTD I’m sitting between S&P 500 …
Predicated 2026 S&P500 ROI
Goldman Sachs strategists predict a 12% ROI for the index by 2026. Since we are currently at a 7% rate, the market must maintain its current pace to exceed the 12% ceiling. GS analysts have also factored in a slowdown in their 2026 projections. Additionally, the first half of the …
The market seems to think everyone in AI will be a long-term winner. I don't see how that's possible
I see the AI companies as being in three distinct groups. **Group A: AI infrastructure** \- Nvidia, AMD, Micron, Intel etc. **Group B: Hyperscalers** \- Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Google (although Google kind of fits into all three groups). **Group C: Pure-play application layer** \- OpenAI, Anthropic, and others. People have …
Anyone else feel mentally messed up seeing people casually make insane money trading options?
Long term small investor here with a regular 9-6 job. Lately I’ve been feeling this weird mix of jealousy, FOMO, and frustration seeing people I know make what looks like stupid amounts of money trading options. I’m in my 30s, put in long hours every week, try to save/invest the …
American Tech
I have a strong belief that the reason technology companies of all kinds, are making their way back to, or increasing capacity in the United States, is because of agentic robotic labor. Datacenters are now classed as national security. Semiconductor manufacturing is now under rapid development in the US, due …
How to invest in Germany/Ukrainian defense drone?
I know this might be a little bit of a long shot, but I would like to invest in something ideologically and financially appealing, like drone defense systems. I read an article saying germany was going to partner with ukraine to develop drones with military use, but i am in …
So if you missed the big Intel and AMD run, what’s your next move? What are you buying or are you holding?
So if you missed the big Intel and AMD run, what’s your next move? What are you buying or holding? Last week was a wild run up of AMD, which I didn’t expect the stock results. Intel saw some positive movement. DRAM which has been getting mentioned quite a bit …
108% vs S&P 500 ~40% over 2 years... timing + leverage or mostly luck?
[https://ibb.co/dswPGXNp](https://ibb.co/dswPGXNp) Posting a portfolio vs S&P 500 comparison over \~2 years for discussion. * Portfolio: \~+108% * S&P 500: \~+40% * Net contributions: none The equity curve probably looks smoother than it actually felt. Most of the gains came from a few entries around sharper drawdowns rather than steady compounding. …
$TXN - Analog manufacturer is raising prices on their products
"Texas Instruments May 7, 2026 Dear Valued Partner: We are writing to inform you of upcoming adjustments to our product pricing. The new prices will apply to all orders and shipments, effective July 1, 2026. We are sharing this notice with you in advance to maintain transparency and ensure consistency …
A Random Thought on AI Pivots
As I start to see companies pivot towards AI strategies, it reminds me of a chapter I read a while back in A Random Walk Down Wall Street. The author talks about how during the dotcom bubble a traditional company could just mention a web strategy or put .com at …