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REDDIT

108% vs S&P 500 ~40% over 2 years... timing + leverage or mostly luck?

R
May 9, 2026 · 17:21

[https://ibb.co/dswPGXNp](https://ibb.co/dswPGXNp)

Posting a portfolio vs S&P 500 comparison over \~2 years for discussion.

* Portfolio: \~+108%
* S&P 500: \~+40%
* Net contributions: none

The equity curve probably looks smoother than it actually felt. Most of the gains came from a few entries around sharper drawdowns rather than steady compounding.

Mainly used leveraged ETFs like TQQQ / SOXL. No options or additional margin leverage on top of that.

Only took a handful of trades overall and spent a lot of time sitting in cash between entries.

Most of the time I’m usually just waiting on cash. I only enter when the market reaches certain conditions I’m comfortable with....not exact price levels, more like specific types of pullbacks/price behavior.

Not claiming this is repeatable or skill-based. Could easily just be favorable conditions + hindsight making it look cleaner than it was in real time.

Trying to understand how much of this kind of outcome is:

* timing
* leverage/exposure
* or just market regime

Curious how others here would interpret a return profile like this.

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