Posts
How far can the S&P 500 realistically drop from here? Or is the bottom already in?
Hey everyone, looking for some perspective from more experienced investors. I’m a pretty basic long-term investor (mostly index funds / S&P 500), and I’m trying to figure out my entry strategy right now. With everything going on globally (wars, macro uncertainty, etc.), I feel like markets should have more downside, …
Option Prices Considering Inflation Over Time
Is there a way for option prices to consider inflation over time? For example if you sell an option for $200 back in 2013 compared to now that same $200 is worth significantly less than that date was in the past. If valuations increase then yes the option price will …
My short term plan to deploy 50k
I’ve been waiting for relatively “stable” market conditions to buy stuff with 50k that’s been waiting around after I sold everything I was in a few weeks ago. That’s probably not gonna be a thing for a while. So I figured instead of buying shares, I’d sell puts on stuff …
Timing the market is a mug’s game.
This week, I spoke to an “investor” friend of mine who had supposedly made several “long-term” investments earlier this year. However, as soon as the war started, he liquidated most of those “long-term” investments, telling me that he thinks this war will be a disaster that sinks the world economy. …
Why is it after hours today in America?
At the time of posting its Friday morning at 11:00. I just got a coffee and took an edible and logged into my brokerage to buy some shares of great companies at a fair price and I saw that the market was closed. What’s the meaning behind the market being …
Today I have free time,How to Trade Markets in the Late Stages of a Conflict?
Based on the news currently circulating in the market, it appears the conflict has entered a phase of mere verbal sparring. This suggests that a resumption of active hostilities is unlikely,unless, of course, Trump decides to launch another surprise attack. The various nations in the Middle East are also buckling …
Alibaba went from "uninvestable" to mass AI spending in two years and the numbers are starting to back it up
Two years ago the consensus on Chinese tech was pretty much "don't touch it." Regulatory crackdowns, delisting fears, Jack Ma disappearing, the whole narrative was that these companies were uninvestable. Alibaba dropped 82% from its 2020 highs and was trading under $80 in 2024. Fast forward to now and the …
Oil and the USD
I think the worries about the impact that the Iran war will have on the USD is overblown. I think there are two interconnected reasons why: First, the world doesn’t use USD as a favor to the US, they use those dollars because they are the best medium of exchange …
Buying this dip or waiting? Feels like a weird spot right now
Seeing a lot of “buy the dip?” posts lately and honestly… I don’t think this is a clean setup either way. The pullback is real - S&P is down 9-10% from highs, VIX is still above 20, and oil hanging around $105 isn't doing anyone any favors. We're also still …
Do futures shape the future?
It almost seems like futures trends shape the actual future and not the other way around. People are just trying to make money, so if the futures show a big jump, we as a people are incentivized to make that big jump happen. Is the future of humanity just based …