Posts
Equal weighted S&P surprise
I;m thinking about switching the S&P part of my pro-folio to equal weight. I had ChatGpt run the numbers and was surprised. $10,000 investment Years 100% S&P 500/ 50/50 Blend/ 100% Equal Weight 10 Years \~$28k \~$30k \~$34k 20 Years \~$71k \~$79k \~$88k 30 Years \~$200k \~$229k \~$270k 40 Years …
Framing the Cerebras Hype Cycle a Little More Responsibly
One distinction I think is getting lost in the [Cerebras hype cycle](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/cerebras-challenges-nvidia-chip-dominance-040100169.html?guccounter=1) is that Cerebras is primarily an LLM / generative AI infrastructure story, not a universal “all AI” chip story. That is not necessarily a criticism of Cerebras. Their wafer-scale approach is genuinely interesting, and for large model training …
Semiconductor stocks are basically a black hole right now and everything else is getting left behind
Been tracking the market pretty closely this year and honestly semi-stock is doing something I haven't really seen in a while. It's not just that chip stocks are up, it's that they're up in a way that makes everything else look pointless. Like Sandisk is up somewhere around 500% YTD. …
RDDT is the most undervalued social media stock.
As LLMs have practically exhausted all publicly available data, finding creative and insightful training data becomes a bottleneck for progress. The issue with social media data like X is that it's biased by so-called influencers which the LLM (Grok) places more weight on. It's blindly following influencers who may or …
NOW might actually be a decent Ai play
ServiceNow stands as an orchestration layer between legacy software and modern digital workflows for databases using agentic AI. Every business process has to flow through its platformf for safe execution. Theyre basically the TSMC of agentic AI workflows excellent entry price based on changing momentum. forward pe 28, trailing p/e …
Paypal bagholder
I bought in a few months ago and am currently down -22%. I do not see that with all the massive AI wave Paypal is not going to be able to cut their costs by at least 30% in total. Costumer service, transaction observation and a whole lot of other …
Echostar SATS proceeds with closing spectrum transfer to AT&T and SpaceX
Echostar SATS stock has been mostly a proxy for SpaceX for those who follow. Even the management acknowledges that: "***Investor expectations regarding our potential investment in SpaceX may be currently influencing our stock price, and, if so, any adverse developments relating to SpaceX, changes in market perception of SpaceX or …
Sivers Semiconductor AB : Retail investors carry the stock
Hi, I don't know if you know Sivers Semiconductor AB. It's a company who make some laser for AI data center photonic. The company is not in good situation : they are losing money, their main shareholder is suffering... But, one X influencers made a call and everyone listen to …
Hot Take: Agentic Coding really just started a few months ago, and people are going batshit crazy with projections and stories
I think there’s a cognitive dissonance going on that since ChatGPT came out in 2022, the fluff is removed and ppl have an accurate view of things But agentic coding should be viewed as its own thing. It really just started having breakout mainstream performance a few months ago via …
The S&P 500 is trading at 31.8x earnings. What exactly is the bull case from here?
Looked at some valuation data today and honestly it's making me think more than I expected. trailing P/E is at 31.8x. Long-term average is \~17.6x. even the 10-year average is only \~23x. So we're not just "a little elevated" we're pretty stretched on a historical basis. the bull case is …