Hot Take: Agentic Coding really just started a few months ago, and people are going batshit crazy with projections and stories

I think there’s a cognitive dissonance going on that since ChatGPT came out in 2022, the fluff is removed and ppl have an accurate view of things

But agentic coding should be viewed as its own thing. It really just started having breakout mainstream performance a few months ago via the First Mover: Claude Code.

Is this not the exact same as chatbot layer where performance will be duplicated and even expected by the frontier models and then even the next tier of 20 top Chinese / open source models?

Anthropic is not even profitable while charging ABSURD amounts for enterprise

But people are somehow assuming that pricing power will stay?

Won’t it get 100x cheaper once commoditized? If it’s not profitable now how will it be when it’s way cheaper?

Theory: agentic coding will be commoditized very soon and the only business making money will be inference providers.

Positions: Google Cloud (!) tokenomics on TPU are unmatched. if Anthropic somehow retains pricing power Google still ironically wins tho so I think it’s decently hedged