Posts
More Time and Distance vs Shorter-Dated Credit Spreads
I've increasingly found myself favouring longer-dated credit spreads, mainly because they allow me to place the short strike considerably further from the underlying while still collecting a worthwhile premium. For example, rather than selling a shorter-dated spread relatively close to the market, I'd generally prefer to go further out in …
0-1 DTE Traders: Identifying Trend Days and Exits
Hello, I am asking anyone who trades 0-1 DTE (long) how you mainly identify a trend day, and what You watch for as an exit. Right now for trend days the main thing I look for is escalating volume and full candles, but that doesn't always tell the whole story. …
[Data Post] SPY's option-implied probability of being up in a month is at the 94th percentile since
I pulled daily SPY option chains back to 2010 and extracted the implied probability that SPY is up over one and two weeks, one month, three months, and six months. The implied probability gives SPY a 65% chance of being up in a month which is in the 94th percentile …
Long Dated META options
TL:DR Sell/Trim/Hold these META options I had a long position in META that grew to about a quarter mil and I got out at \~$780 last year. When META tanked back to 4xx something I bought long dated calls that have been well in the green but on the Muse …
Fat fingers or ignorance?
Are you mad at urself sometimes after knowing u made a mistake? This is what happened to me today, I did my analysis/ thesis or whatever u want to call it. I decided to sell my call and collect my premium. Instead I am in a rush since I m …
Ideal wheeling strategy
What is an ideal wheeling strategy that has worked out well for folks? Like how many days out and what percentage premium should you be targeting? I am mostly planning on sticking with large cap tech stock to do this like AMZN, NVDA, Google etc. because these are the ones …
Navigating Wash Sale "Phantom Gains" with spreads
As someone who recently started exclusively trading spreads on equities (often opening and closing same day), I'm worried about issues from the tax man specifically "phantom gains" from trading in december. Lets say I trade these spreads on 20 tickers throughout the year. My plan is to divide them in …
VIX play before midterms
Trying to figure out the best way to trade the midterm vol run-up and post-election crush. Thinking either: \- VIX calls now: Catch the pre-election panic, but contango/decay will eat it alive if it moves slow, and holding through the election guarantees IV crush. \-e Sell VIX puts late Oct: …
Apple-Microsoft Correlation Analysis and Option Strategy
The correlation between two stocks entered a downtrend on September 14 at 16:00 ET at the +0.53 level. The trend is still ongoing (23 candles, 92 trading hours). It has declined from the +0.53 level to the +0.244 level. AAPL rose 2.72%, MSFT fell 2.17%. In my correlation calculation, I …
My Earnings IV crush story on MSFT and sharing October data
I started seriously trading earning events this year. Took some time to understand them. Volatility usually (slowly/rapidly) rises before an event, e.g., earnings. This has been measured and researched heavily (sources below). Post event IV drops, selling just before the event and capturing this IV (crush) can be a source …