Buy SPY by Oct 23, 2026.

I pulled daily SPY option chains back to 2010 and extracted the implied probability that SPY is up over one and two weeks, one month, three months, and six months. The implied probability gives SPY a 65% chance of being up in a month which is in the 94th percentile historically (median is 60% chance of being up in a month). Implied Volatility is low (31st percentile). Historically IV is uncorrelated with IP (ρ ≈ −0.05). However, if you rescale …