Posts
Brokerage Account vs Social Security
I am in a unique position where my retirement will be a pension, not a 401k. That pension will fully fund everything that we will need from age 65 on. My wife and I also have Roth IRAs that we try to max each year. However, because my pension is …
SpaceX (SPCX) - does anyone have it in their portfolio and what are your thoughts? What are your thoughts on the long-term potential of the stock?
SpaceX created the highest number of employee millionaires during an initial public offering (IPO). Although its stock rocket is currently somewhat grounded, I reasonably assume this is only temporary. With the first quarterly report behind us, let's look at the numbers and guidance for the coming period. In its first …
Debt and hyper scalers - Valuation ramifications ?
What are the valuation ramifications for such a fast ramp of debt issuance at the big hyper scalers? 5 hyperscalers issued an average of $30B / year from 2020-2024. In 2025, it went to $100B. This year, we’re at $200B already in August. Expectations are to exceed $1T annually from …
Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - August 21, 2026
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Everyone loves tech stocks right now. That’s exactly what worries me about the next 10 years.
Right now it feels like everyone is buying the same things: tech stocks, semiconductors, “AI stocks,” Nasdaq 100, QQQ. And at the same time, the Nasdaq 100 is trading around 30x earnings, while the S&P 500 CAPE ratio is getting close to 40. Both are historically expensive. You basically have …
The interesting thing about Bitcoin is that people in different countries seem to be buying completely different things
Soros had this idea of reflexivity: people don’t just passively observe reality. Their beliefs affect how they behave, that behavior affects prices and sometimes reality itself, and the new reality then feeds back into those beliefs. Bitcoin is probably one of the clearest examples of this I’ve seen. After spending …
SK Hynix is starting to remind me of Ericsson in Sweden’s 1999–2000 tech bubble
I was looking at SK Hynix’s growing influence on the Korean market and it reminded me of something that happened in Sweden during the dot-com bubble. Ericsson became absolutely enormous relative to the Swedish stock market. At the peak, it was more than one-third of the total market cap of …
Convince me SSO (2X SPY) is a bad idea for long term investors
Let's assume I'm a long-term buy and hold investor invested in index funds. Why is it a bad idea to hold 10-30% of my portfolio in something like SSO to juice up my returns? Over the long term, the S&P 500 will go up (the continued existence of every pension …
What are your thoughts on Fidelity Wealth Management vs just say Fxaix and Ftec?
I'm in my mid thirties and am consolidating 3 401ks and also have some brokerage accounts. What are your thoughts for the 401ks being professionally managed by Fidelity at around 0.9% of a fee vs me just picking popular funds like FXAIX, FTEC, and something that has international exposure? My …
Parking in ICSH (iShares Ultra Short-Term Bond) vs laddering short term CDs or Funds
I have some short term bridge funding for about 60K that needs to be drawn over roughly a 2+year period (27months) that I want to park and earn some interest in bond ETFs, funds or CDs. It seems ICSH might fit the bill with about 4.08% current yield as of …