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Q4 2024 Portfolio Update
<p><em>Note: Only two weeks until the release of “<a href="https://thescienceofhitting.com/p/buffett-and-munger-unscripted">Buffett And Munger Unscripted</a>”! Preorder a copy <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Buffett-Munger-Unscripted-Investment-Shareholder/dp/1804090670">today</a> to ensure that you’ll receive it as soon as possible.</em></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2ad9c621-7a46-4bb0-86bf-bb14cc1b86da_572x855.jpeg" target="_blank"><div class="image2-inset"><source type="image/webp" /><img alt="" class="sizing-normal" height="855" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2ad9c621-7a46-4bb0-86bf-bb14cc1b86da_572x855.jpeg" width="572" /><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset …
Academy: Retail Turnaround?
<p><a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/academy-sports-tests-investor-appetite-for-retail-11601636400">In October 2020</a>, nearly a decade after being acquired <a href="https://media.kkr.com/news-details?news_id=f412e3c5-3f71-4b6c-b8f0-09a2b020c387&type=1">by KKR</a>, Academy Sports + Outdoors (ASO) went public. It seemed an ideal time to act: after reporting negative comps in each of the preceding three years, 2020 and 2021 comps increased by +16.1% and +18.9%, respectively. This resulted …
The House Of Sport
<p><em><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S40LGY51bfY">Ed Stack, former CEO of Dick’s Sporting Goods</a>: “We never fell in love with ourselves… Other retailers really didn’t innovate, and the market passed them by… We need to build the concept that will kill Dick’s Sporting Goods.”</em></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9cd372eb-e049-457e-8f4b-dc7dbde05158_1374x654.jpeg" target="_blank"><div class="image2-inset"><source type="image/webp" /><img alt="" class="sizing-normal" …
Portfolio Change - 01/16/2025
<p><em>Note: Review all prior portfolio changes at <a href="https://thescienceofhitting.com/t/tsoh">the “TSOH” tab</a> on the website.</em></p><p>As a result of some recent stock price volatility, I have concluded that now is an opportune time to make a few portfolio changes (as always, trades are executed the day <em>after</em> they are disclosed to subscribers). …
BF.B: The American Spirit
<p><em>Note: Tomorrow is a day I’ve anxiously awaited for some time – the official release of “<a href="https://thescienceofhitting.com/p/buffett-and-munger-unscripted">Buffett And Munger Unscripted</a>”. While I’m obviously excited to see what comes next, I am also grateful for what has already happened: the publisher tells me that the early response to “Unscripted” has …
Netflix: "Thinking Too Small"
<p>From “<strong><a href="https://thescienceofhitting.com/p/netflix-this-is-when-it-all-matters">Netflix: This Is When It All Matters</a></strong>” (April 2022): </p><p>“That conclusion suggests Netflix should reassess some of their priorities, especially as they’ve shifted their views on an ad-supported tier. I think this development will likely lead Netflix to reconsider its presence in recurring / live programming like sports …
Ally: End Of The Tunnel
<p>From “<strong><a href="https://thescienceofhitting.com/p/ally-financial-inflection-point">Ally Financial: Inflection Point</a></strong>” (July 2024): “On a few key metrics, most notably credit quality (net charge-offs) and spreads (NIM’s), we’re nearing or at an inflection point… Ally Financial is poised to report much higher EPS in the coming years… There is light at the end of the …
Microsoft: "The UI For AI"
<p>From “<strong><a href="https://thescienceofhitting.com/p/microsoft-capex-conundrum">Microsoft: CapEx Conundrum</a></strong>” (August 2024): “Embedded in that valuation framework are two critical assumptions: the long-term ROI from this CapEx spend and whether management can / will meaningfully adjust if faced with adverse outcomes. From where we stand, it’s tough to answer those questions with a ton of …
Meta: More To Come
<p>From “<strong><a href="https://thescienceofhitting.com/p/meta-a-pivotal-year">A Pivotal Year</a></strong>” (February 2024): “You can be quite confident that Meta will not fall short on key initiatives from a lack of conviction or outside pressure that constrains Zuckerberg’s aggressiveness. Given his track record, I think that’s a trade-off long-term shareholders should be okay with.”</p><p>As I see …
"They're Actually An Asset"
<p><em>Note: Access all prior Disney (DIS) research <a href="https://thescienceofhitting.com/t/disney">on the TSOH website</a></em></p><p>From “<strong><a href="https://thescienceofhitting.com/p/disney-the-path-forward">Disney: The Path Forward</a></strong>” (August 2024): </p><p>“In management’s quarterly commentary, they wrote the following: ‘From movies to television, sports to news, theme parks to consumer products, Disney has an unmatched portfolio of businesses. Individually, each of these …