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- Total posts
- 418
- Total predictions
- 37
- Success rate
- 26.5%
- Avg score
- 0.09
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Priced and diagramed the layers of the AI supply chain - evaluated on true FCF yield (OCF - CapEx - SBC) for 30 tickers. The "AI winners" mostly yield below the risk-free rate.
Ran a true FCF yield screen across the entire AI value chain: hyperscalers, chip designers, TSMC, memory (Micron), ASML, semi equipment (Lam/KLA), materials suppliers (MKSI/ENTG/UCTT), and a control group of "beaten-down SaaS" names the market has priced as AI casualties …
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HCI Group deep dive: normalized FCF yield after reserve release adjustment, statutory subsidiary dividend caps, Citizens 20% depopulation mechanics, and two-storm empirical loss history. Looking for pushback on the reinsurance structure and the tort reform durability thesis.
The two analytical questions I'd most welcome pushback on from this community: First: how durable is the 2022-2023 Florida tort reform improvement? The loss ratio improvement from 55% to 29% is partly structural and partly a reserve release tailwind. My …
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Did SK Hynix's Long-Term Contracts Cause the Selloff? Doesn't Look Like It
SK Hynix corrected 34% so far this week. Falling from ₩2,919,000 to ₩1,913,000 between June 22 and July 14. The crash narrative floating around blames long-term contract fears. I could not verify the source of that read. Does anyone have …
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