r/SecurityAnalysis

True FCF yield and Y220 applied to consumer discretionary and staples names. DECK at 8.43% yield and 16.5% CAGR is the standout. Looking for pushback on the GTM thesis specifically - is AI really killing enterprise B2B data or is the market overpricing the doomsday scenario?

The specific analytical question I'd most welcome pushback on from this community: ZoomInfo (GTM) trades at 23.96% true FCF yield with a 10.54% three-year revenue CAGR and a Y220 already at the 20% threshold. The market is pricing it as …

I own GEV because the turbine is already sold

I own GEV. Not because it's an AI-power stock. Because they already sold the turbines. Last quarter the slot book went from 100 GW to 116. They signed 20 GW, converted 10, actually shipped 3. Same customers are buying the …

Post-Dilution Performance

This was the natural close to a series of articles that I've written about dilution. I went in with the intuition that dilution isn't an automatic drag on stock performance, but the practitioner in me constantly saw companies announce dilution …

Cameco is in the uranium-spot basket. It already sold the pounds

I noticed the nuclear tape still prices Cameco, Kazatomprom, NexGen, and Uranium Energy as one uranium-spot trade. I don't think they are. Cameco is already contracted for more than 28 million pounds a year through 2030. Q2 realized US$67.79/lb against …

CoreWeave just paid $640 million in interest in a single quarter, up 139% in a year

To buy all those chips, they borrow huge amounts of money, using the chips themselves as collateral. CoreWeave now owes around $72 billion and lost $626 million last quarter, most of it just interest on the debt. A lot of …

Walmart

Can google earn enough to justify their capex spend

Here is my thinking, there are 3 ways a company can earn from AI. 1. Field of dreams, build it and they will come. 2. Boost their core product 3. Sell compute Clearly, Google are doing 3 with their Google …

Alphabet made more from its investments than from Google. It sold almost none of them.

I recently saw that Alphabet reported $112.2bn of net income last quarter while the actual business, ads and cloud, earned $40.8bn of it, so I looked into where the rest came from. It is a $99.0bn gain on investments, and …

FEG and Y220: two modifications to PEG that substitute true FCF for earnings and express growth as years to a target yield rather than a ratio. Methodology critique welcome.

The standard PEG critique from this community usually focuses on earnings quality. I decided to make some modifications: FEG replaces P/E with price-to-true-FCF (OCF minus CapEx minus SBC) and replaces earnings growth rate with three-year revenue CAGR. Revenue CAGR is …

MTCH: a declining cash cow still priced for a growth asset

I published a bearish valuation thesis on Match Group at approximately $37/share, with an $8–11 target over 24–36 months. The core question is whether Hinge deserves to keep Match Group trading at a substantial premium to distressed dating-app comps while …