Help me play a very low stakes game of timing the market. Would you pull the trigger now, or wait a bit longer?
**Necessary disclaimer:** *Please do not try to convince me that timing the market is not a winning strategy long term. I know that already. Please do not tell me that no one knows exactly what the market will do next week. I know that already. This post is for fun, and we're talking about a small amount of money.*
In 2024, I chose to prioritize investing in my employer retirement plan and my taxable brokerage account, and I sort of ignored my IRA. Well, I started working on my tax return recently and it's looking like I owe several hundred dollars. I can cut that down significantly by putting \~$3k in my IRA before I file.
I'm going to make the contribution no matter what, and I can't touch the money for 25+ years, so realistically I stand little to gain or lose in terms of when I actually make the contribution. But, I figured I would take this opportunity to play a little game of trying to time the market. Today's selloff is exactly the kind of thing I was waiting for, but of course, I'm wondering if the market will go lower next week, or the week after that.
So, give me your predictions. I can see things bouncing back somewhat quickly on Monday, but I can also see this slide having much more room to run. Again, this is for fun, so even if you're just going off of vibes, what is your personal outlook on the market in the next few weeks?