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PLTR to $20 by March? Insider Sell Window Theory

N
Feb 20, 2025 · 08:35

PLTR’s sitting pretty at $100+ right now, with a 40x revenue multiple and 150x forward earnings—absolute madness. But I’ve got a wild theory I’m chewing on, and I want your take. The tea leaves (X posts, earnings vibes, random chatter) suggest the board’s pumping the stock hard—like, artificially keeping it sky-high—to set up a sweet exit window for insiders and employees. Then, bam, they let it drop once the selling’s done.Here’s the kicker: Karp’s unloading 9.975M shares through Sept 2025 (SEC filings), and the next trading window’s mid-Feb to mid-April after earnings. Stock’s got hype, but this valuation’s a house of cards—feels like they’re nudging folks to cash out now before gravity hits. I’m calling it: if they ease off the juice post-window, PLTR could crater to $20 by March 2025. That’s, what, 20x forward earnings, closer to sanity for a software play, even with their AI glow.Am I nuts? Sell with the insiders in Feb-April while it’s $100+, or is this just FUD and PLTR holds the line? Could it really hit $20 that fast if the board stops propping it up? Momentum’s real, but so’s mean reversion. What’s your play?