France is starting to look like a peripheral and that should concern everyone holding euro assets

The spread between French and German 10-year yields just hit its widest point in 15 years. That’s the market repricing France from core eurozone to something closer to the outer edge.

The political situation underneath is genuinely ugly. Macron is depending on Le Pen's bloc to pass a budget built around 43 billion euros in cuts, targeting a deficit that's still sitting at 5% of GDP. That's a shaky foundation for fiscal credibility, and the bond market is saying so out loud.

Swiss franc is catching safe-haven flows that used to go to the euro, and it's not just France, Italian and Greek spreads are moving in the same direction. The 2011 sovereign stress playbook is starting to look relevant again, except this time the ECB is tightening into it rather than riding to the rescue with emergency purchases.

Given that the ECB doesn't have the same room to backstop spreads it had in 2012, are you fading European bank exposure here or do you think the political risk in Paris gets resolved before this becomes a genuine contagion story?