I’m 31 and trying to think through how to allocate my taxable brokerage account. I already fully contribute to my retirement accounts, have a six-month emergency fund, and this account is focused on maximizing returns.
I currently have about $50k in the account and add roughly $2k/month.
What I’m most interested in is how other people are thinking about the interaction between the bond market, energy market, and tech sector right now.
My current thesis is:
* Bonds look historically cheap, and I think the U.S. government has strong incentives to push bond prices up and yields down.
* Energy prices may continue to be driven higher, probably as a way to pressure China's economy.
* Tech, especially AI-related tech, could see a major correction once the economics and financials become clearer. It looks similar to the railroad boom and bust.
* If/when that tech correction happens, my plan would be to move the majority of this taxable account into tech at lower valuations.
Right now, I’m positioned across government bond index funds, energy stocks, and tech infrastructure/providers/operators, but I’m still thinking through whether that mix actually makes sense.
I’m less interested in generic “just buy VTI” advice and more interested in how people are analyzing these forces together. How are you thinking about bonds, energy, and tech right now, especially in terms of how movements in one market could affect the others and what the catalyst might be.