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REDDIT

I see a lot of speculation that Warsh will continue to hold rates at FOMC despite 90% odds of a hike. Is holding actually an option for him?

B
Sep 15, 2026 · 01:35

A combination of hot inflation and hot jobs reports has pushed the odds of a Fed rate hike to over 90%. But I'm seeing plenty of speculation that Warsh will continue to 'let the market figure it out'. I understand the skepticism - a lot of people believe he's the president's puppet and think he will delay the rate hike as long as possible.

But can he actually hold rates with the market almost fully expecting a hike?

Consider the consequences of defying extremely high market expectations and holding rates while inflation is blatantly surging. The market would understand the Fed is not serious about fighting inflation and Fed credibility would instantly collapse. Long term treasury yields would take off, which would be horrendous for the national debt.

Even if Warsh is actually there to appease the president and the stock market, are these consequences he's willing to accept?